BALKAN REGIONAL PROFILE:
THE SECURITY SITUATION AND THE REGION-BUILDING EVOLUTION
OF SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
(A Background and January 2002 Issue in Brief)
Research Study 01, 2002
Hard copy: ISSN 1311 - 3240
AN I S N-SPONSORED MONTHLY ELECTRONIC PERIODICAL
I. Introduction
The region-building priorities in
South-East Europe are dominated by the need for stability and by the further
enlargement of the EU towards the Balkans. The security agenda for the
region is dominated by the fight against terrorism and by NATO's enlargement
to include South-East Europe. Ethnic strife, which the democratic governments
of the FRY and of Macedonia are still incapable of quelling permanently,
is becoming a nuisance for the rest of the region. Despite the continuing
post-conflict arrangements in Kosovo and the implementation of the Ohrid
agreement of August 2001 in Macedonia, both issues demand the attention
and efforts of the countries in the region and their external partners
in creating stability and resolving controversial issues. The favorable
milieu that these conflicts create for various forms of terrorism calls
for their regulation and comprehensive resolution. However, labeling as
"terrorist" all factors obstructing the settlement of ethnic
conflicts – a widespread practice among the official institutions in Belgrade
and Skopje – is a simplification of the complex issue, and suits the interests
of the leadership in the two capitals. This approach favors terrorists
and extremist elements among the people of these two countries. In their
case, it is not enough to simply declare a "state of democracy",
but the concept must be assimilated and internalized before it becomes
an integral part of the social fabric of both the FRY and Macedonia. It
is not enough to be more fluent in the discourse with the West, while
exploiting and abusing the West’s need for more stability in the Balkans.
Real domestic political and psychological change is needed to cope with
ethnic intolerance in the two Western Balkan states. It would be counter-productive
for the broader region of South-East Europe, and for Europe in general,
if the improved relations between Belgrade and Skopje led to the formation
of an “anti-terrorist front” as a pretext for a united front against Albanian
rebels. Such a development would preclude all prospects of achieving tolerant
relations with the Albanians in both countries. The citizens in both countries
should not be misled by nostalgia for the common Yugoslav past. This project
is over and any effort to find a kind of a substitute would clash with
the longer-term interests of the people of these countries and the rest
of the Balkans to live together in the EU and in the common Euro-Atlantic
security space. The Euro-Atlantic future of the Balkans and the need to
create a civil and democratic zone in the region requires small, but decisive
steps towards re-creating confidence and tolerance in Kosovo and Macedonia.
To ignore this fact or to overemphasize the clash of ethnic interests,
and to continuously treat ethnic groups as antagonistic, is a recipe for
disaster in the Western Balkans and would postpone their peoples’ Euro-Atlantic
integration indefinitely.
This is our reading of both the
EU's and NATO's diligent efforts during the last month to press for deeper
and more effective relations with the Balkan countries. NATO experts visited
all MAP countries of South-Eastern Europe for a review in January, and
the EU extended financial support to Belgrade. Russia, and, to a lesser
extent, China, also tried to promote their economic and political interests
in the Balkan region.
The changes to the security agenda
in the aftermath of the 11 September terrorist attacks must finally be
perceived by the leaders in the Western Balkan countries and allow the
region as a whole to join in the struggle with the post-Cold War world's
number one security risk in a more effective way.
II. Security
Threats, Conflicts and Post-Conflict Developments in the Balkans
1. Security Threats:
Terrorism
a) Preparation for the ISAF Mission.
Preparations for participating in the International Security Assistance
Force (ISAF), a multinational peacekeeping force in war-torn Afghanistan,
are being made in some Balkan countries:
(1) In the first days of January,
a 25-strong team from 12 nations contributing to a British-led foreign
security force in Kabul began surveying the shattered Afghan capital.
Intelligence experts from Greece and Romania were part of the team. (2)
The Romanian Defense Ministry announced on 8 January that Romania would
send 48 troops and a C-130 Hercules transport aircraft to Afghanistan
by the end of the month. The cost of the operation is US$6 million and
is covered by the Romanian military budget. The initial Romanian offer
was significantly larger, but the international forces accepted only a
part of the services made available by Romania. Pending the approval of
the ISAF commanders, a second Romanian force of 70 chemical weapons specialists,
170 mountain troops and 15 military doctors may join the first group later.
(3) The defense ministry of Bulgaria announced on 9 January that it had
received a request from Britain to take part in the UN-mandated ISAF.
The Bulgarian government and parliament decided to provide a unit for
chemical protection made up of 40-46 troops with the appropriate armament
and facilities. (4) Turkey sent 20 soldiers to Afghanistan on 18 January
in advance of the peacekeeping contingent of 261 soldiers. The advance
unit will secure the Turkish peacekeepers’ arrival in Kabul, scheduled
for February. Turkey is expected to take over the command of ISAF after
the three-months' term of the current British command expires. Turkey
has pledged to provide aid and training to help build an Afghan police
force and national army. Ankara believes its secular democratic state
could serve as a model for rebuilding Afghanistan. Turkey enjoys a very
close relationship with the deputy minister of defense in Afghanistan’s
transitional government, the ethnic Uzbek General Abdul Rashid Dostum.
The general spent several years in exile in Turkey and his family lives
in Ankara. On the weekend of 19-20 January, General Dostum visited Ankara;
he also met with Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, Foreign Minister Ismail
Cem and other officials on 22 January.
b) US-Greek Cooperation in the
Fight Against Terrorism. US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld met
with the prime minister of Greece, Costas Simitis, on 10 January in Washington,
D. C. and discussed the war against terrorism. They also discussed the
upcoming Olympics in Greece and the security implications for the Games.
c) US-Turkish Cooperation in
the Fight Against Terrorism. (1) A nine-member bi-partisan US Senate
delegation visited Ankara on 4 January and discussed the fight against
terrorism with Turkish leaders. Senators Joseph Lieberman and John McCain
thanked Turkey for its critical support in the war on terrorism. (2) Turkish
Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit met with President George Bush in Washington
on 16 January. The US president said his country was grateful that Turkey
has been steadfast in its support for the international campaign against
terrorism.
d) Bulgarian Humanitarian and
Financial Aid to Afghanistan. Bulgarian diplomatic and financial officials
reported that Bulgaria – a donor for Afghanistan since the 1980s - was
ready to provide US$2 million in humanitarian aid to the conflict-torn
country. The Afghan debt to Bulgaria will amount to US$45 million by 2003,
and Sofia is ready to restructure it and forgive half or even the whole
of this debt. Afghan diplomats noted on 16 January that Bulgaria was the
first Eastern European country to send a diplomatic envoy to Kabul after
the military campaign against the Taliban regime. Technoexport, Elektroimpex,
Agrocomplex, Bulgartabac, and many other pharmaceutical and construction
companies have already expressed their willingness to return to the Afghan
market and contribute to the country’s reconstruction.
e) Bulgaria to Head the UN Committee
on Somalia and Vice-Chair the UN Sanctions Committee Against Iraq and
Libya. Bulgaria, a temporary member of the UN Security Council from
1 January, will lead the work of the UN Committee on Somalia. This failed
African state is suspected of hiding al-Qaida terrorists. The work in
the Sanctions Committee against Iraq will not be easy due to the clandestine
production of chemical and biological weapons by Saddam Hussein.
2. The Conflict
in Macedonia and Post-Conflict Issues in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina
a) Macedonia. (1) The Albanian
National Army (ANA), a clandestine extremist organization, on 13 January
issued a threat to the official institutions of Macedonia that it would
retaliate if the army and police continued their return to ethnically
mixed regions. ANA called the Ohrid agreement of August last year “a knife
in the Albanians' back”. The return of the Macedonian armed forces and
police was hindered temporarily by the harsh winter conditions, but will
proceed. EU Special Envoy to Macedonia Alain Le Roy firmly condemned the
ANA's declaration and its preparations for possible renewed conflict.
(2) According to media sources, the US National Intelligence Council has
concluded that the conflict between Albanians and Macedonians may grow
into a civil war with a destabilizing effect on the whole region of South-East
Europe. According to the Austrian journal “Kurier”, Erhard Buzek, the
new coordinator of the EU-led Stability Pact for South-East Europe, believes
there is a 50-50 risk of war in Macedonia. (3) General Metodi Stambolisky,
Chief of General Staff of the Army of the Republic of Macedonia, held
intensive talks in Kiev with Ukrainian political and military officials
on 14 January, including the ministers of defense, foreign affairs and
the Ukrainian Chief of the General Staff, General Petro Shulyak. The two
sides officially announced they aimed to intensify their military and
military-technological cooperation. Ukraine will set up a plant in Macedonia
to service and modernize the country’s armored vehicle and tank force.
The agreement reached in Kiev provides for the supply of 31 T-72 tanks,
8 Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters, 4 Su-25 ground-attack jets, ammunitions
and spare parts to the Balkan state. Last year, after Western pressure,
Ukraine stopped arms shipments during the Albanian rebellion. After the
peace agreement of August 2001 in Ohrid, the two countries resumed their
arms trade. The military leadership of Macedonia plans to supply the paramilitary
units of the country’s interior ministry with Mi-24 K helicopters. (4)
A visit by NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson to Skopje, planned
for 18 January, was cancelled due to heavy fog over the Macedonian capital.
The visit was postponed. The secretary-general intended to discuss NATO’s
Amber Fox peacekeeping mission and the internationally mediated amnesty
for former ethnic Albanian rebels. Some developments in Macedonia are
unacceptable for NATO: the delay in the implementation of the Ohrid peace
agreements, in completing the process of granting pardon and amnesty to
Albanian rebels, in passing a law on local self-government, and in the
return of multiethnic police forces to former conflict areas, as well
as the continued presence of the “Lions”, paramilitary formations of former
police officers, and the purchase of Mi-4 “flying tank” helicopters from
Ukraine. Macedonia is one of the nine applicant countries for membership
in NATO. During his visit to Skopje on 24 January, Javier Solana, the
High Representative of the EU for Foreign and Security Policy, underlined
the EU's desire to see the Ohrid agreement implemented, including the
provision of amnesty to Albanian rebels. As soon as the parliament in
Skopje passes the local self-government law, support from the World Bank
and the European Commission Donors’ Conference might be expected.
b) Kosovo
Moderate Albanian political leader
Ibrahim Rugova failed to win enough support in the new legislature of
Kosovo in the presidential elections of the province on 10 January. Only
50 out of the required 80 deputies in the 120-seat parliament of Kosovo
backed Rugova. In the first round of voting on 13 December last year,
Rugova received the support of 49 deputies. The next round of elections
will require a simple majority of 61 votes for electing the president
of Kosovo. Rugova's Democratic League of Kosovo won the parliamentary
elections on 17 November 2001, designed to give the province self-government
under a UN umbrella. However, the support of other parties is needed for
the election of Rugova for president. This development does not prove
that the elected representatives in the parliament of Kosovo are ready
to face the real challenge of governing the war-torn province and its
traumatized people – be they Albanians and Serbs.
c) Bosnia and Herzegovina
(1) According to media sources in the Republika Srpska,
American reconnaissance troops have arrived in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Their mission is reported to be the arrest of Radovan Karadzic, the former
Bosnian Serb leader, wanted for war crimes by the ICTY in The Hague. (2)
US President Bush sent a letter to the Speaker of the House of Representatives
and the President of the Senate on 21 January to inform Congress that
there are currently 3'100 US servicemen serving with SFOR – 18 per cent
of the total number of soldiers in Bosnia-Herzegovina from 19 NATO and
17 other nations. The president reported that in the last 6 months, US
forces there had not sustained any combat-related fatalities.
III. The
National Perspectives of the Balkan Countries: Specific Issues
1. Bulgaria
The new President of Bulgaria, Georgi
Parvanov took office on 22 January after winning last November's elections.
He vowed to continue to work for Bulgaria’s integration into the EU and
NATO. Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis and Turkish Deputy Prime Minister
Mesut Yilmaz attended a ceremony marking the start of 44-year old Parvanov’s
five year mandate. Parvanov is the former leader of the Bulgarian Socialist
Party (BSP), and during the ceremony in parliament on 19 January he underlined
that his strategic objectives are joining the EU and NATO. The new president
pledged to work for accelerating the EU accession negotiations so that
Bulgaria can catch up with other EU membership candidates from Central
and Eastern Europe.
2. Romania
Prime Minister Adrian Nastase told
the county prefects on 11 January that Romania's priorities for 2002 are
the country’s accession to NATO, the consolidation of economic growth,
the development of agriculture, the fight against corruption, the fight
against poverty and the acceleration of the EU accession process. Political
and social stability are indispensable prerequisites for reaching these
goals. The prime minister said 2002 was the time for a frontal attack
against corruption and incompetence.
3. Croatia
(1) Croatian Justice Minister Ingrid
Marinovic said on 4 January that judiciary reform is one of the strategic
goals of the government to ensure the judiciary stops serving politics.
Croatia, a country of 4.5 million people, has around 1.3 million unsolved
criminal cases, some of them dating back to almost 10 years ago when the
country became independent. (2) On 12 January, Croatia marked the 10th
anniversary of its international recognition, while regretting the bloodshed
of the past decade. However, ending the Yugoslav communist rule and seeking
independence was a right cause, President Stipe Mesic said at the special
session of the parliament to mark the event. (3) Croatian government officials
on 22 January announced plans to return all Serb houses now occupied by
refugees from Croatia and Bosnia to their original occupants by the end
of 2002. This act would not require reciprocal steps by neighboring countries.
Government officials will work to accelerate the processing of more than
27'000 Serbian claims for return of houses.
4. FRY
Javier Solana, the EU High Representative
for Foreign and Security Policy, urged the leaders of Serbia and Montenegro
on 25 January to reach an agreement on the required constitutional changes
to preserve the existence of the Yugoslav Federation. He met both with
FRY President Vojislav Kostunica and with the president of Montenegro,
Milo Djukanovic.
IV. The
Bilateral and Multilateral Relations in the Balkans. The State of the
Regional Initiatives
1. Bilateral Relations
a) Bulgaria-Turkey. Bulgarian
National Border Police Directorate authorities urged Turkey on 4 January
to reinforce its northern border to stem a rising flow of illegal immigrants
from the Middle East and Asia. There has been a serious rise in migrant
flows since the start of the war in Afghanistan and this tendency is expected
to continue. The Bulgarian border police detained 11'000 people in 2001,
mainly from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, who attempted to cross illegally
from Turkey to Bulgaria on their way to Western European countries. The
number of detainees in 2000 was 380. A first group of 80 Bulgarian police
officers was sent to the border with Turkey to confront a new wave of
Kurd and Afghan refugees. Sofia sent a diplomatic note requesting the
Turkish government to take the necessary steps to keep down the number
of illegal crossings. The Bulgarian consular service has introduced the
world's best-protected visa permit in its consulates – a product of high
technological value that is to be introduced in the EU from 2003.
b) Slovenia-Croatia. The
Slovenian government approved an initiative on defense cooperation with
Croatia on 10 January. The main part of the initiative is concerned with
the cooperation between the two countries in the contexts of the OSCE
and the UNis. The future agreement between the two countries will provide
for courses, seminars, and military meetings between the armed forces
of the two countries. Both are NATO candidates and the Alliance expects
the two countries to have solved all open issues between themselves by
the time they can be considered for membership. Croatia and Slovenia have
not yet ratified the agreement aimed at solving a border dispute that
was signed last summer by Prime Ministers Ivica Racan of Croatia and Janez
Drnovsek of Slovenia.
c) Romania-Croatia. According
to Croatian ministry of defense sources, the Croatian government approved
a deal with Romania to start upgrading 28 MiG-21 jets produced some 15-20
years ago. This is the first large order received by the Romanian Aerostar
company in recent years. Aerostar is situated in Eastern Romania and it
has had a certificate since 1999 for providing repair and upgrades for
former Soviet military aircraft.
d) Bulgaria-Greece. (1) Greek
Prime Minister Costas Simitis made a one-day official visit to Sofia on
22 January. The prime minister was accompanied by the minister of foreign
affairs, George Papandreou and met with Bulgarian Prime Minister Simeon
Saxkoburggotsky in Sofia. The visit of the Greek prime minister was part
of a series of upcoming meetings with Balkan leaders focused on reinforcing
bilateral and regional relations. The prime ministers of the two countries
discussed bilateral economic ties and the Sofia's preparations for joining
NATO and the EU. The future of the Kozloduy nuclear plant and a trilateral
Greek-Bulgarian-Russian oil-pipeline project, to connect Bourgas and Alexandroupolis,
were also discussed.
The foreign minister of Greece launched
an initiative in Sofia for drafting a joint position by Greece, Turkey,
Bulgaria and Romania on the issue of the applicant countries’ NATO entry.
An appropriate opportunity for Greece and Turkey to boost Bulgaria’s and
Romania’s cases ahead of the Prague summit this autumn could be the 12
February Istanbul International Conference, with the participation of
the EU foreign ministers and the Organization of Islamic Conferences.
(2) The chiefs of the general staffs of Greece and Bulgaria, General M.
Paraudakis and General M. Mihov, signed a bilateral program for cooperation
in the military field for 2002 on 23 January in Thessaloniki, northern
Greece.
2. Regional Initiatives:
the Pact of Stability for South East Europe
Erhard Buzek, the new coordinator
for the Stability Pact for South-East Europe, made his first visit to
the region in this new capacity to Sofia, Bulgaria on 15-16 January. Buzek
met Prime Minister Saxkoburggotsky and Foreign Minister Solomon Passy
and was decorated by former president Petar Stoyanov with the Order of
the Stara Planina, First Class – one of the highest Bulgarian distinctions
for both nationals and foreigners. Buzek was clear in stating the Stability
Pact’s intention to construct a free trade zone in South-East Europe by
the end of this year. Buzek will visit Sofia again at the beginning of
February and discuss in greater detail the Bulgarian proposal to construct
a council for economic growth that will stimulate and guide the region’s
economic progress.
V. THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE BALKAN
COUNTRIES AND THE REGION
1. Bulgaria. The First International
Tourist Conference “Bulgaria – a Country of Dreams” was held on 10-11
January in Sofia. The Bulgarian prime minister participated in the conference
together with the former governor of Nevada, Bob Miller. Former US President
Bill Clinton greeted the conference with a video address. Bulgaria's income
from tourism in 2001 was US$1.3 billion, and 2.8 million tourists visited
Bulgaria. The World Organization of Tourism predicts 10.8 million tourists
will visit Bulgaria in 2020.
2. Croatia. Croatia’s government
lifted a disputed ban on the road transport of oil derivatives on 24 January
after protests by neighboring Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, who
threatened to retaliate by banning Croatian transits. Croatia declared
on 20 January that it wanted to curb illegal sales and insisted such products
could pass through its territory only by ship, rail or pipeline. Many
Slovenian truckers carry oil to Bosnia through Croatia, and so their government
threatened to retaliate against Croatian truckers passing through its
territory. Bosnia in turn said it would stop importing Croatian oil products
worth US$100 million per year. After diplomatic protests and warnings
from the neighbors that they might report Croatia’s decision to international
organizations, Zagreb conceded to lift the imposed ban.
3. US-Turkey. The US State
Department Under-Secretary for Economic, Business, and Agricultural Affairs
Alan Larson led a high-level delegation to the first US-Turkey Economic
Partnership Commission on 26-27 January. According to US State Department
sources, the US and Turkey have long maintained a close strategic partnership.
Now the two sides have agreed to upgrade their economic partnership to
the same level. The first initiative of this new chapter in their relations
is the convening of the first US-Turkey Economic Partnership Commission.
The new forum will allow the broadening of the economic dialogue to focus
on enhancing trade and commercial relations, increasing investment flows
and supporting the successful implementation of Turkey’s economic reform
program.
VI. THE PROCESS OF DIFFERENTIATED
INTEGRATION OF SOUTH EAST EUROPE IN EU AND IN NATO
1.
EU
a) EU-Bulgaria.
(1) Bulgaria will fight to delay the closure of two of the older
reactors at its Kozloduy nuclear power plant beyond the EU deadline of
2006. Energy Minister Milko Kovachev said on 10 January that reactors
number three and four would be decommissioned by 2008 and 2010, respectively.
By the end of this year, reactors number one and two will be decommissioned.
An earlier closure of reactors three and four would affect the whole of
South-East Europe, because now Bulgaria covers 50 per cent of the region's
power requirements. Bulgaria’s main energy customers in 2001 were Turkey
with 3.8 billion kWh, followed by Greece, Romania, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania,
Macedonia and Montenegro. Kozloduy now has six nuclear reactors and supplies
44 per cent of Bulgaria’s electric power. Bulgaria is currently negotiating
on the energy chapter with the EU, and all Bulgarian EU partners should
be aware of the fact that Bulgaria substantially contributes to the stability
of South-East Europe by providing electric energy to the region. The Kozloduy
nuclear plant is probably the world’s most inspected and internationally
monitored power station. No serious malfunction has been detected over
its 28 years of existence. Its security has even been improved in the
last decade with EU and North American expertise and support, and the
personnel has always been of highest technical efficiency. Should this
local provider of cheap and accessible electric power disappear from the
market, no foreign or domestic source would be able to fill the resulting
economic, social, security and political gap at such a low cost. None
of the neighboring countries, nor the EU can provide enough energy to
cover all needs. Russia is the only provider of electric energy that could
fill the gap, with all the obvious geopolitical consequences for South-East
Europe, but Russia is interested for economic reasons in preserving its
current relations with Bulgaria with regard to nuclear energy. (2) Bulgarian
foreign ministry sources announced on 21 January the EU's expectations
that the staff of the current Bulgarian administration be increased by
20 per cent. The Bulgarian government only recently completed a 10 per
cent personnel cut in the country’s administration.
b) EU-FRY.
In the first days of January, the European Commission announced
it had adopted a five-year strategy to regulate its financial aid to FRY.
An initial payment of €960 million will be allocated between 2002 and
2004.
2. NATO
a) NATO-Bulgaria. (1) The
preparations of the Bulgarian armed forces for NATO membership include
the removal of obsolete light armament – mainly infantry armament and
ammunitions. These will be sold or destroyed to release huge storage space.
This press announcement was made on 9 January. The Bulgarian government
on 10 January approved changes to the military doctrine and the law on
defense and the armed forces, providing for a reduction of the wartime
army from 250'000 to 100'000 soldiers. In peacetime, Bulgaria will have
an army of 45'000 soldiers, some 41'000 of whom will be in military units.
The National Intelligence Service and the National Security Service will
no longer be part of the armed forces. The threat of terrorism was added
as a primary issue of concern in the new military doctrine of Bulgaria.
The changes in the law on defense and the armed forces, as well as in
the military doctrine, are expected to be debated and passed by parliament
and become effective by mid-February. During the coming year, 7'500 Bulgarian
soldiers will leave the army due to the on-going cuts; their social adaptation
and integration in civilian life has been well planned in economic and
logistical terms. (3) Towards the end of January, a special US committee
was convened to work on the destruction of Bulgarian Scud and SS-23 missiles.
It is expected to arrive in Bulgaria for talks soon. The deadline for
destroying the missiles, as set by the Bulgarian authorities, is 30 October
2002. (4) British General Jeremy MacKenzie, former deputy Allied commander
for Europe and consultant on the Bulgarian Plan 2004, said in Sofia on
11 January, after meetings with both the former and the new president,
that Bulgaria was doing well in its preparations for NATO entry and army
reforms under the plan.
b) NATO-Romania. (1) The
Romanian defense minister said on 12 January that by 2003, 75 per cent
of the Romanian armed forces would be composed of professionals, and only
25 per cent by conscripts. A new bill in Romania will soon provide for
a shorter conscription period as well as for an alternative service. (2)
General Joseph Ralston, SACEUR visited Bucharest on 21-22 January. He
discussed the progress made in fulfilling the provisions of the Romanian
National Membership Program (MAP). He also discussed Romania’s participation
in the campaign against terrorism and the political-military situation
in the Balkans.
c) NATO-Slovenia. (1) President
Milan Kucan of Slovenia called for a national referendum on NATO entry
on 15 January, ahead of NATO’s Prague summit in November this year, when
invitations to applicant countries are expected. In December 2001, the
number of supporters for NATO entry dropped by more than two points to
53.2 per cent, while the number of opponents rose by more than four points
to 27.5 per cent. (2) A ten-member NATO commission, together with Slovenian
defense ministry representatives, on 16 January began a three-day visit
to Maribor airport to evaluate the infrastructure for an eventual use
by NATO. The airports at Brnik and Cerklje ob Krki will also be evaluated.
d) NATO-Albania. (1) Commanders
of the Albanian ground forces told Defense Minister Pandeli Majko on 10
January that the obligations resulting from the NATO MAP process were
successfully implemented during 2001. The armed forces were re-organized
and underwent maintenance at all levels as well as experiencing improvements
in their working conditions. An analysis of these forces' activities shows
positive achievements in conducting bilateral and multilateral exercises.
(2) NATO Secretary-General Lord George Robertson arrived in Tirana on
17 January for an official visit. He met with Foreign Minister Arta Dade
and Prime Minister Ilir Meta. Lord Robertson said that the Albanian government
and people had done a lot for the stability of the Balkan region, but
it appears this gratitude will not be enough to secure Albania's NATO
accession. Major changes are still required in the armed forces and civil
society. He also said that political stability in the country was indispensable
for membership in the Alliance.
e) NATO-Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Leading representatives of the Bosnia-Herzegovina parliament and government
met with a NATO delegation, headed by the NATO director for the Balkans,
Robert Serry, in Sarajevo on 23 January. On 24 January, the NATO delegation
talked with the representatives of the Bosnian Serb Republic in Banja
Luka. In Sarajevo the NATO experts talked about the reorganization of
the armed forces, employment opportunities for demobilized army members,
and about meeting the conditions for the country’s admittance to the PfP
program. The leaders of the federation said that NATO assistance is crucial
in implementing the military reforms. The modernization of the armed forces
and the care for the demobilized soldiers would be an impossible task
for Bosnia-Herzegovina on its own. On the NATO side, it was emphasized
that much more action is required from Sarajevo before it is admitted
to the PfP program. It is especially important that the armed forces of
Bosnia-Herzegovina have a recognizable identity. Reducing the armed forces
and creating a joint plan and organized system of command and control
at the state level are priority tasks. An acceptable level of civilian
democratic control over the armed forces is also a fundamental prerequisite
for admittance in the PfP. A major obstacle in this direction would be
the Republika Srpska’s insistence on preserving two armies – that of the
federation and that of the Republika Srpska.
VII. THE INFLUENCE OF OTHER EXTERNAL FACTORS ON THE
REGION: NATIONAL GREAT POWERS AND INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
1. US
a) US-South-East Europe.
Ambassador James H. Holmes, who previously served as US ambassador to
Latvia and as coordinator for assistance to Central and Eastern Europe,
took up his duties at the State Department as special advisor on South-East
Europe on 11 January.
b) USA-Turkey.
The prime minister of Turkey, Bulent Ecevit, visited the US from
14-18 January and met with President Bush on 16 January. The Turkish delegation
included 100 business executives. Turkey, a traditional US ally, has a
major role in the campaign against terrorism in Afghanistan and Central
Asia.
c) US-Bulgaria. (1) The US
ambassador to Bulgaria, Richard Miles, opened the Center for Fighting
Illegal Trafficking and Trade in Human Beings together with the Bulgarian
Interior Minister in Sofia on 4 January . US equipment worth US$90'000
was donated to the center. The US government highly values the Bulgarian
special forces' efficient measures against illegal human trafficking,
according to the US embassy’s press service. (2) On 15 January, Miles
informed Foreign Minister Solomon Passy that he had participated in a
meeting of the US diplomatic representatives to the region of South-East
Europe that was held in Washington, D. C. Though no official statement
of US support for Bulgaria’s entry in NATO is to be issued soon, the Ambassador
pointed out that Bulgaria’s stance during the Kosovo crisis and the anti-terrorist
campaign had been highly appreciated by the US.
2. Russia
a) Russia-Bulgaria. Bulgarian
Deputy Prime Minister Nikolay Vassilev, made an official visit to Moscow
from 21-23 January. He met with Russian Vice Prime Minister and Finance
Minister of the Russian Federation Alexey Kudrin. The Russian side declared
it was prepared to pay back its US$100 million debt to Bulgaria. The two
leaders agreed to convene a bilateral inter-governmental commission on
21-22 February in Sofia. A crucial agreement stipulates that the paying
of the debt will not be linked to the contentious issue of Russian and
Ukrainian property in Bulgaria – a problem that Bulgaria insisted be resolved
between Moscow and Kiev. A visit by the Bulgarian foreign minister in
Moscow will be followed by a visit by the country’s prime minister, Simeon
Saxkoburggotsky. Russia confirmed its engagements with the construction
of the trilateral Russian-Bulgarian-Greek project of the oil pipeline
Bourgas-Alexandroupolis. The Russian oil giant Lukoil impressed on the
Bulgarian vice prime minister its intention to participate in the privatization
of the Bulgarian energy sector. An agreement on easing the bilateral visa
regime will be signed on 31 January. Russia intends to invest more than
US$1 billion in the Bulgarian economy over the next four years, Vassilev
said upon his return from Moscow.
b) Russia-Slovenia. In the
first days of the new year, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Drnovsek visited
Moscow and met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kassyanov. The two
countries' trade volume was US$600 million in 2001 and may soon reach
US$1 billion, according to the two leaders. The prime minister of the
Russian Federation wished Slovenia a successful future in the EU.
3. China
China-FRY. The visit of FRY
President Vojislav Kostunica in Beijing, China ended on 11 January. The
joint declaration on the occasion of the visit acknowledged the huge support
provided by China for the reconstruction of the FRY's economy. The declaration
also rejected “double standards” in fighting terrorism – a statement that
clears the way for Belgrade to deal with the Albanian issue within the
framework of the “fight against terrorism”, in the country’s terminology.
VIII. CONCLUSIONS: THE SECURITY SITUATION AND THE EVOLUTION
OF REGION-BUILDING
The issues of fighting terrorism and NATO enlargement
have gained a priority position in the Balkan security agenda. Most local
actors agree that stabilizing and rehabilitating Macedonia, Kosovo, and
B-H, and solving the problem of the status of Podgoriza and Belgrade within
the federation, is essential. The future region-building evolution largely
depends on the realization of the new political, security and economic priorities
that are only now being addressed in the Balkans.
EDITORIAL STAFF:
|
CONTACT AND REFERENCE
|
Dr. Plamen Pantev, Editor–in–Chief
|
ISSN 1311 – 3240
|
Dr. Tatiana Houbenova-Delissivkova
|
Address: ISIS, 1618 Sofia,
|
Mr. Valeri Rachev, M. A.
|
P. O. Box 231, Bulgaria
|
Mr. Ivan Tsvetkov, M. A.
|
Phone/Fax: ++(359 - 2-) 551 828
|
Dr. Todor Tagarev
|
E-Mail Address: isis@cserv.mgu.bg
|
|