BALKAN
REGIONAL PROFILE
THE SECURITY
SITUATION AND THE REGION-BUILDING EVOLUTION OF SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
January 2004
Research
Study 57, 2004
Hard copy:
ISSN 1311 – 3240
AN ISN-SPONSORED
MONTHLY ELECTRONIC PERIODICAL
I.
INTRODUCTION
The last days of 2003, and the first month of 2004 confirmed the dual
engagements of Southeastern Europe in the area of stability: contributing
to the stabilization of other regions in the world and continuing to
work for its own stability. The participation of Southeastern Europeans
in peacekeeping, post-conflict rehabilitation activities, and occupation
forces in Afghanistan and Iraq
continued. The first Bulgarian victims in the post-war stabilization
of Iraq were registered. Five soldiers and officers were killed, and
two dozen more injured, after a suicide car-bomb attack on the military
base ‘India’ in Kerbala. The death of the Bulgarian military was a heavy
blow on the nation, which mourned the victims on 30 December. IAEA Director
Mohammed ElBaradei issued a warning a few weeks later that nuclear weapons
could fall into the hands of terrorists. The fact that two powerful secular
Muslim states, Turkey and Pakistan, decided to join forces in combating
terrorism this month is regarded in some parts as a sign of a high level
of danger facing every country.
The Western Balkans is a terrain of competing forces that wish to shift
developments to more stability and less conflict and hatred. The visit
of the new NATO secretary-general to the Western Balkans confirmed the
alliance‘s determination to maintain its presence in the area, although
the EU will also share the military burden in the years to come. The results
of the Serbian parliamentary elections on 28 December 2003 came as a
great shock to many. These results confirm a vital mood of
revenge, ethnic intolerance, and hatred in Serbian society that threatens
to throw back the development of the broader Balkan region to earlier
periods. The parliamentary election victory of the nationalist Serbian
Radical party can hardly be compared to the return to power of the Croatian
nationalists in November last year, who have adopted a clear pro-reform,
pro-EU, and pro-NATO political course. The ghost of ‘Greater Serbia’
is again very much alive in Serbian political and social life – a real
setback for the democratic segments of this society.
Greece announced this month that it would convene early parliamentary
elections in March. Bilateral Greek-Turkish relations in the last month
saw definite progress in both the political and the economic fields.
The positive developments in the bilateral relations of Turkey and Greece
constitute a key factor of stability in the broader region of Southeastern
Europe.
The EU this month sent clear signals of its continued interest in accepting
Turkey as a member in the longer term, if Ankara introduces all reforms
that are required for membership. This month, the EU also confirmed its
readiness to complete accession negotiations with Bulgaria by the end
of 2004 and integrate the country in the beginning of 2007. NATO Secretary-General
Jaap de Hoop Scheffer and the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR),
General James Jones, confirmed in January the existence of working relations
with Bulgaria and Romania, and the high probability of their being allowed
to join NATO before the June summit in Istanbul later this year.
The US continued its cooperation with Bulgaria in fighting organized
crime and terrorism. After a visit by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan
to Washington, the White House confirmed that Ankara was solidly on board
in the joint fight against terrorism. The Bulgarian Chairmanship of the
OSCE that started on 1 January also prioritizes the fight on terrorism.
II.
SECURITY THREATS, CONFLICTS AND POST-CONFLICT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BALKANS
1. Terrorism,
Nuclear Proliferation, Post-War Reconstruction of Afghanistan and
Iraq
a.
Terrorism: Turkey-Pakistan. Turkey and Pakistan decided on 20 January to begin pooling resources
in the battle against Islamic extremists. Pakistani President Pervez
Musharraf, who survived two recent assassination attempts, paid a three-day
visit to Turkey on 19-21 January and met with Turkish President Sezer
and the prime minister. The leaders of the two countries signed an agreement
on “terrorism and crime”. The leaders expressed their endeavor that terrorism
should be rooted out. Both Pakistan and Turkey have been targeted by
presumed Muslim extremists in the recent months. The intelligence services
of the two secular Muslim states are strong, cooperate with US intelligence,
and are eager to expose possible links between domestic extremism and
external terrorist groups.
b. Nuclear Proliferation: IAEA Warning. In one of the last issues of
German weekly magazine Der Spiegel in January, IAEA Director Mohamed
ElBaradei wrote that the world has never been as close to nuclear war
as it is today. His major concern is the danger that nuclear arms produced
by democratic states may fall into the hands of terrorists and dictators.
This serious concern highlights the need for continuing a comprehensive
nuclear non-proliferation policy, as well as staying close to the sources
of such threats and acquiring tools of influence in a preventive and
pre-emptive manner. c. Post-War Build-Up of Afghanistan. On 6 January,
NATO took command of a peace-building mission in northern Afghanistan.
This was the first step in a NATO plan to expand the mission out of the
capital and into the country’s troubled provinces ahead of crucial summer
elections. German troops took over command from US troops in Kunduz,
north of Kabul. Other NATO nations established Provincial Reconstruction
Teams (PRT), freeing up the US military to focus on battling Taliban
insurgents in the south and east. PRT are small teams of civilian and
military personnel working in Afghanistan’s provinces to provide security
for aid workers and help with reconstruction work. There are currently
six PRT under the command of the US-led coalition forces.
d. Post-War Reconstruction of Iraq
1) Romania. On 5 January, Romanian State Secretary Decebal Lina, responsible
for the arms industry, proposed to supply the new Iraqi army with weapons.
The formal offer of artillery ammunition and Kalashnikov rifles will
be made when the US opens the bidding process.
2) Bulgaria. The killing on 27 December 2003 of five Bulgarian soldiers
and officers in Kerbala, part of the occupation battalion in Iraq, provoked
a variety of reactions in Bulgarian society and institutions. First of
all, the loss of life was a shock to Bulgarians. The Bulgarian state
and public opinion treated them and their families as heroes. Second,
the military and society were not intimidated, and the ambition to continue
the occupation of Iraq grew higher as a result of the killing. Third,
all state institutions, pressed by internal institutional procedures,
by the civil society, and by the media, reconsidered their basic attitudes
to current and future engagements by the Bulgarian armed forces in various
contingencies. A new awareness of the reality of military intervention
and of the necessary institutional and military-technical capabilities,
was born in the weeks after the killing in Kerbala. Though the motivation
of many Bulgarian rangers in Iraq has been partly professional, partly
financial, the additional realization of the magnitude of the threat
led to a better public understanding of the importance of the country’s
policy. Fourth, the Bulgarian president, the government, and the parliament
were unanimous in not changing the country’s policy. What was new was
the public’s expectation of greater effectiveness and success by Bulgarian
armed forces and the other institutions from the security sector. Fifth,
the loss of human life in Iraq triggered a new psychological and social
process: 62 rangers of the second battalion pulled back from the mission,
but 140 new ones volunteered to join. Sixth, the fight on terrorists
and insurgents in Iraq does not divert the major focus of the external
participants there – stabilizing, reconstructing, and rebuilding Iraq
economically, politically, institutionally, and culturally. The stated
goal of the international occupation forces is to create a democratic
Iraq. The aim is to help the people of Iraq, not replace them in building
their own new life.
2.
Post-Conflict Developments in the Balkans
a. FYROM. Macedonian President Boris Trajkovski and Defense Minister
Vlado Buckovski discussed issues concerning Skopje’s membership in NATO
in Ohrid on 19 January. The president announced that he would appoint
the new chief of staff of the Macedonian armed forces in February, in
accordance with his prerogatives. In the past weeks, discussions had
ensued between him and the government over the right choice for the chief
of staff.
b. Kosovo. (1) The KFOR force carried out a training
exercise on 1-2 January to practice their rapid-deployment abilities.
About 1’000 peacekeepers
– part of the tactical reserve units stationed in Kosovo – took part
in the four-phase operation code-named “Flowing Tears”. The tactical
reserve is part of the 19’000-strong NATO-led force in the province.
These units conduct everyday tasks in the area where they are deployed,
but maintain the ability to move quickly to reinforce other regions
in Kosovo, and to conduct operations when needed. (2) On 16 January,
new
NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer pledged in Pristina that
NATO would remain committed to the province and continue providing
security. Though NATO has other mounting engagements elsewhere, mainly
in Afghanistan,
considerable changes to the structure of troops in Kosovo were not
expected. The two ethnic communities in Kosovo remain deeply divided.
Mr. de Hoop
Scheffer appealed for compromise to allow displaced people to return
home, as stipulated by the UN. No decisions on the status of Kosovo
are to be made before the UN-set conditions are met. However, the unofficial
target date for reaching the UNMIK goals is mid-2005. (3) At the “Stockholm
International Forum: Preventing Genocide”, held on 26-28 January, Jean-Christian
Cady, a UN representative in Kosovo, said that the ethnic conflict
in
this province had provided several valuable lessons on international
efforts to prevent ethnic conflict: The international community needed
to demonstrate a ‘clear and common will’ to stop ethnic cleansing.
It also had to be able to quickly deploy an international mission.
This
mission would have to have a robust mandate and a military component.
Any delay in establishing a full peacekeeping presence could lead to
interethnic retaliation and difficulty in achieving refugee returns,
he said.
c. Bosnia and Herzegovina. (1) The IMF on 31 December 2003 approved the
extension of the Stand-By Arrangement for Bosnia and Herzegovina by two
months to 29 February 2004. The extension will assist Bosnia and Herzegovina
in preparing for the IMF’s upcoming fourth review under the Stand-By
Arrangement, approved on 2 August 2002. (2) EU High Representative for
Bosnia and Herzegovina Paddy Ashdown warned the politicians of that country
on 7 January to accept reforms by June this year if they wanted Sarajevo
to join NATO’s PfP program. In addition, the European Commission will
review the country’s progress towards membership and decide whether to
conclude a Stabilization and Association Agreement. The reform of the
judicial system is among the priority tasks for the Bosnian politicians,
who are still ethnically divided. Ashdown also said that if Bosnia failed
to jump on the European train now, it might not get another chance for
a long time to come. (3) On 22 January President George Bush sent a letter
to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro
tempore of the Senate informing them that he had directed the continued
deployment and participation of US forces to Bosnia and Herzegovina and
other states in the region to support the NATO-led SFOR in its efforts
to apprehend persons indicted for war crimes, and to conduct counter-terrorism
operations. There are 1’800 US troops in SFOR, comprising just 15 per
cent of the total force. (4) On 21 January, NATO Secretary-General Jaap
de Hoop Scheffer and EU High Representative for Foreign and Security
Policy Javier Solana held initial talks for the EU to take over peacekeeping
duties in Bosnia and Herzegovina by the end of this year, but the date
might be pushed back. It was still difficult to give an exact date, the
NATO Secretary-General said after the meeting. NATO has to find what
residual role it will play in Bosnia. The SFOR contingent now numbers
12’000, and EU countries have agreed in principle to deploy a 6’000-strong
force of their own in Bosnia in 2004 to replace NATO’s force, possibly
under British command. The EU already took over policing responsibilities
from the UN a year ago. (5) On 28 January, EU High Representative for
Bosnia and Herzegovina Paddy Ashdown issued a decree that transformed
the six separate municipalities in Mostar into a single assembly and
administration. This administrative act marks a new step towards strengthening
the country’s central authorities at the local level.
III.
THE NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES: SPECIFIC ISSUES
1.
Serbia and Montenegro. The Serbian
Radical Party of ICTY-indicted war criminal and right-wing extremist
Vojislav Seselj won the parliamentary elections of 28 December 2003 with
27.01 per cent of the votes, garnering 82 seats in the 250-member parliament
of Serbia. Though in custody in The Hague, Seselj was on the list of
elected MPs. Second place went to former Yugoslav president Vojislav
Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia, with some 18 per cent of the
votes. The third-strongest party was the Democratic party of late Prime
Minister Zoran Djindjic, followed by the G-17 Plus party and the coalition
between the Serbian Renewal movement and New Serbia. In the new parliament,
the Socialist party of Slobodan Milosevic is represented by 22 MPs. Milosevic
himself was at the head of his Socialist party’s electoral list. Tomislav
Nikolic, the leader of the radicals while Seselj is in jail, replaced
him in February 2003. Seselj went voluntarily to The Hague to stand trial
and present his party’s ideological stance. Nikolic was deputy prime
minister of Serbia in 1999, but resigned in protest of the intervention
of NATO in Kosovo. He likes to end his speeches with the slogan: “Long
live Greater Serbia”. Tomislav Nikolic dedicated the victory of his party
to Vojislav Seselj. Nikolic believes that Serbia will not be able to
join the EU in the next ten years. He is confident that Serbia will never
become a member of NATO, and thus collaborate with the US. On 21 January,
Nikolic told the press that Serbia did not want to be a NATO member,
as Serbs did not want to cooperate with the US. The Radical Party, headed
by Seselj and Nikolic, still believes in expanding Serbia beyond its
current borders to incorporate other ethnic Serbs in the region. The
plenary meeting of the newly elected Serbian parliament on 30 January
is scheduled to elect the governing institutions of the country and of
the parliament itself. The Serbian democratic parties hope to reach agreement
on coalition plans. Whatever government is formed must cooperate with
the ICTY in The Hague. Failing to do so would mean the loss of valuable
aid from the EU and the US. New parliamentary elections are quite probable.
2. Albania. (1) On 1 January, Albania launched a major reform of its
judicial system, establishing a separate court system devoted to hearing
cases on organized crime, human trafficking, and murder. The 27 judges
serving on the newly created ‘Serious Crimes Court’ will have adequate
expertise to deal with such cases. Albanian President Alfred Moisiu had
a crucial role in insisting on changes in the establishment of the rule
of law in Albanian society. Last year, he denounced ‘suspicious links
between politics and crime’. The newly created system will hear any case
where defendants face 15 years in prison or more. The judges of the new
court will have bodyguards and will receive better payment – US$1’000-1’700
per month, compared to the average judge’s salary of US$800. (2) The
government announced on 19 January that it would introduce reforms aimed
at fighting human trafficking, terrorism, and organized crime. US and
Italian experts will aid the government in drawing-up measures against
terrorism, crime, and other threats. The reforms will also tackle corruption
in the ranks of police and customs officials. 2004 is expected to be
a decisive year in the fight against trafficking and organized crime
in Albania.
3. Greece. On 7 January, Prime Minister Costas Simitis decided to step
down as a leader of the Socialist Party (PASOK) and called for early
elections on 7 March, though the mandate of his cabinet does not expire
until April. With this step, Simitis intended to boost his Socialist
Party and end political uncertainties during the run-up to the Olympic
Games. The political battle for power will be fought between the ruling
PASOK and the party of Simitis’ foreign minister, George Papandreou,
, on one side, and the New Democracy right-centre party and its leader,
Costas Karamanlis (47), on the other. On 8 February, PASOK will convene
a special party conference to elect George Papandreou as leader. At the
time of writing, 11 per cent of the Greeks were undecided on how to vote.
The contest between the two parties and its leaders is very close, and
the final results are hard to predict. Recent polls have shown that George
Papandreou (51) is the most popular politician in Greece, but the Socialists
have lagged behind the main conservative opposition New Democracy party
by about 10 percentage points for over a year.
4. Romania. (1) On 8 January, Romanian Ministry of Defense sources announced
their objectives for 2004, including developing the strategic and military
profile of Romania within NATO in a way that will take into account the
changes inside NATO. The ministry will also define a new regional security
profile and strengthen cooperation in the field of security in the Black
Sea area and the Caucasus. The Romanian Defense Ministry is also in the
process of adjusting its planning mechanism according to NATO’s planning
revision. Romania will update its human resources legislation to satisfy
the requirements of NATO. The Romanian armed forces will continue their
downsizing to reach acceptable levels of troops, and to ensure social
protection measures for the staff made redundant. (2) It was announced
on 19 January that Secretary of State with the Ministry of Defense George
Cristian Maior had told an MoD meeting that Romania would purchase another
Hercules-130 military transport aircraft in 2004. This will increase
the number of such planes in the country’s air force to five. The US
Department of Defense is selling the new airplane to Romania and will
upgrade the other four. The fleet of strategic transporters is included
in Romania’s offer of forces as part of its NATO bid. Romanian forces
for NATO also include detachments of mountain troops, NBC protection,
light infantry, and three upgraded frigates that will soon join the military
naval forces.
5. Croatia. On 27 January, former Croatian Serb leader Milan Babic expressed
‘shame and remorse’ for persecuting non-Serbs in Croatia in the early
1990s, pleading guilty to charges of crimes against humanity at The Hague
ICTY. Babic was a central figure in the Krajina Serb republic on the
territory of Croatia as the Yugoslav federation collapsed. He was a close
ally of Milosevic, but in 2002 testified against him at the ICTY trial
in The Hague. Babic faces a maximum sentence of life imprisonment, but
the prosecution may recommend a lesser sentence.
IV.
THE STATE OF BILATERAL, MULTILATERAL AND REGIONAL RELATIONS IN THE BALKANS
1. Bilateral Relations
Greece-Turkey. On 17 January, Greek Foreign Minister
George Papandreou called on Turkey to start a joint process with Greece
of cutting costs
for defense and transfer future funds to education and social programs
in the two countries. Papndreou was speaking during a visit to Alexandroupolis,
on the Greek-Turkish border. ‘My vision is peace for the region,’ said
Papandreou. ‘We [Greece and Turkey] must agree together to have a gradual
and balanced reduction in defense spending after the 7 March elections.’
Greece and Turkey are two of NATO’s biggest defense spenders as a percentage
of GDP. Greece will cut its military spending to 4 per cent of GDP in
2005. The US spends around 3.5 per cent of its GDP on defense. On 19
January, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul responded positively to
his Greek counterpart’s overture. ‘We want to create a new climate in
this part of the world’, the Turkish foreign minister said. Turkey is
an EU candidate.
Turkey-Bulgaria.The Bulgarian Armed Forces chief of
staff, General Nikola Kolev, visited Turkey from 28-30 January. He discussed
bilateral
cooperation and met with Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. Turkey
hopes that Bulgaria will support Turkey’s drive for EU membership.
V.
THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES AND THE REGION
1.
Turkey-Greece. On 23 December
2003 at a ceremony in Ankara, the governments of Turkey and Greece signed
an agreement on building a natural gas pipeline connecting the two countries.
The pipeline will deliver natural gas from Azerbaijan to Greece via Turkey
from the beginning of 2006 and is an important block of the East-West
Energy Corridor. The initial delivery volume will be 500 million cubic
meters; the project represents another significant economic link between
the two countries. In the second phase of the project, the total volume
of natural gas delivered to Greece and Europe via Turkey will reach 11
billion cubic meters.
2. US-Bulgaria, Romania. US President George Bush asked the US Senate
on 21 January to approve the ratification of an Additional Protocol between
the US and Bulgaria to preserve the two countries’ Bilateral Investment
Treaty (BIT) after Bulgaria joins the EU in 2007. A similar document
has already been sent to the Senate concerning Romania. The protocols
would establish a framework acceptable to the European Commission for
avoiding or remedying present and possible future incompatibilities between
their BIT obligations and their future EU membership obligations.
VI.
THE PROCESS OF DIFFERENTIATED INTEGRATION OF SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE INTO
THE EU AND NATO
1. EU
a. EU-Bulgaria. The Irish EU Presidency confirmed to the Bulgarian press
that Bulgaria could complete its EU accession negotiations by the end
of 2004. Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern said on 19 January that
it was less likely that the last negotiation chapters with Bulgaria
could be concluded by June, when the presidency of Ireland expires,
but he was quite sure that this could happen by the end of the year.
Bulgaria and Romania are still waiting for the EU to set a financial
framework for ending the negotiation processes. It had been expected
in December 2003 that this should happen in January-February 2004.
Without a clear financial framework, negotiations would be impossible,
although the Bulgarian side is fully prepared to do its part of the
joint work.
b. EU-Turkey. (1) On 15 January, EU President Romano Prodi visited
Turkey and met with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey, a
candidate
for EU membership, has a population of 68 million, 20 per cent of which
are Kurds. Eighty-nine per cent of Turkey’s population is Muslim. (2)
EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana
told the Turkish newspaper “Zaman” on 21 January that relations between
the civilian authorities and the Turkish military would improve and correspond
to European standards. Solana commended the reforms introduced by the
Turkish government and parliament. He pointed out, however, that more
should be done to increase the effectiveness and independence of the
judicial system. The EU High Representative thought there were still
obstacles preventing the full realization of human rights in the country.
He added that the key to Turkey’s EU integration lay not only in the
hands of Brussels, but also in those of Ankara. Solana called on both
Turks and Greeks to return to the negotiation table over the issue of
Cyprus and accept UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s plan for solving
the issue. (3) On 21 January, German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer
said hours before arriving in Ankara that the EU should admit Turkey
as a full member to boost its own security in the 21st century. He also
told the Turkish daily “Hürriyet” that ‘if we close the doors on
Turkey, we will pay a very heavy price. For us, for Europe, Turkey is
a strategic partner…. Turkey’s strategic importance has become even more
evident since 9/11’. Germany is home to some 2 million Turks.
2. NATO
a. NATO-Bulgaria. (1) The Commander of the United States European Command
(COMUSEUCOM) and Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR), General James
Jones, visited Bulgaria on 8 January. This was an official NATO visit,
during which he met with representatives of the Bulgarian state, government,
and military. Jones was accompanied by a team of experts that continued
the bilateral negotiations on the establishment of US military bases
on Bulgarian soil. (2) Bulgarian Foreign Minister Solomon Passy met with
NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in Brussels on 21 January.
They discussed issues of cooperation between NATO and the OSCE, which
will be chaired by the Bulgarian foreign minister in 2004. Passy also
met with the US Permanent Representative to NATO, Nicholas Burns. The
US diplomat confirmed that teams from the US Department of State and
the US Department of Defense would visit Bulgaria again and negotiate
the establishment of US military bases in the country. Such teams had
already visited Sofia in December 2003.
b. NATO – Western Balkans. On 18 January, the German newspaper “Bild
am Sonntag” published a commentary entitled ‘NATO is facing new tasks’
by NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. Concerning the Balkans,
he wrote that ‘NATO played a key role in the pacification of Southeastern
Europe. Its resolute intervention terminated the civil wars there and
led the Balkans back on the road to Europe. However, peace there is not
yet self-supporting. The time has come in Bosnia to replace NATO troops
by an EU mission. But Kosovo and the Balkans as a whole still need the
stabilizing presence of the Atlantic alliance’, Scheffer wrote.
VII.
THE INFLUENCE OF OTHER EXTERNAL FACTORS ON THE REGION: NATIONAL GREAT
POWERS AND INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
1. US
a. US-Macedonia. On 31 December 2003, US President George Bush issued
a waiver allowing the continuation of military aid to Macedonia, although
it had signed the Rome Statute establishing the International Criminal
Court (ICC), because Skopje had signed Article 98 agreements exempting
US personnel from war crimes prosecution. The ICC will not be able
to try US personnel stationed in Macedonia.
b. US-Bulgaria. The deputy chief of the US Secret Service, George Roberts,
visited Sofia from 26-27 January and met with high-level Ministry of
Interior officials. One aim of the visit was the joint fight against
money counterfeiting.The US Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI), the
US Drugs Enforcement Agency (DEA), and the CIA are expected to establish
official offices in Sofia by the beginning of 2005.
c. US-Turkey. US President George Bush met with Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the White House on 28 January and assured him
that “the United States' ambition is for a peaceful country, a democratic
Iraq that is territorially intact.”. The US president expressed appreciation
for Erdogan’s efforts to resolve the long-standing dispute over Cyprus
and for his “steadfast determination to fight terror”. Erdogan said that
the two countries “share the same views regarding their strategic partnership
in restructuring Iraq,”and thanked Bush for designating the PKK, KADEK
and Kongra Gel as terrorist organizations. The leaders of the two governments
discussed the Middle East region and the importance of continuing to
promote freedom, democracy, and peace in that region. On 29 January,
US Secretary of State Colin Powell and Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gul also discussed bilateral issues and the problems of Cyprus, Iraq,
Syria, terrorism, and other questions of importance to the Middle Eastern
region.
2. Russia
Russia-Bulgaria. The Bulgarian Ministry of
Defense imposed a fine of US$600’000 on Russian aircraft maker Mikoyan
Gurevich at the
end of January for delaying the upgrades of 20 of the Bulgarian air force’s
MiG-29 fighters according to NATO standards, as per a contract that was
signed in the beginning of 2002 and was worth US$60 million. The explanation
given by the Russian company was that it had too much work to do under
a huge contract with India – an explanation that shows how unreliable
the contracting party is from a Bulgarian point of view. Bulgaria will
not be able to start its NATO membership with an intact air force that
is capable of participating in real operations. The issue reopened the
debate over the Bulgarian government’s decision two years ago to upgrade
the MiG-29s.
3. OSCE
OSCE-Bulgaria. On 1 January, Bulgaria took over
the chairmanship of the OSCE for 2004. The OSCE is a unique Euro-Atlantic-Asiatic
security
organization with 55 member states. Six out of 19 OSCE field missions
are situated in the Western Balkans: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Croatia, Macedonia, Kosovo, and Serbia and Montenegro. The Balkans region
is viewed by the OSCE primarily as a hotbed of trafficking in drugs and
humans, with weak governments and unstable economies. Bulgaria will try
to involve the capabilities of the EU, NATO, and other institutions in
the realization of the OSCE tasks. The Bulgarian chairmanship attaches
vital importance to combating smuggling, anti-Semitism, racism, xenophobia,
discrimination, and terrorism. An important document on these goals,
the ‘Strategy to Address Threats to Security and Stability in the 21st
Century’, will be the adopted in Maastricht by the OSCE foreign ministers.
The OSCE will continue to assist Georgia in building democratic institutions
and in implementing market reforms, as well as aiding Moldova in its
search for a solution to the Transdniester conflict.
VIII.
CONCLUSIONS
The
campaign against “terrorism” continued in the Balkan states in January.
NATO and the EU both remain committed to the stability of the Western
Balkans, though national progress in individual countries there is
not smooth at all, especially in Serbia. There is potential for improvement
in Greek-Turkish relations, for example by reducing defense spending.
Both the EU and the US tried to improve their relations with Turkey
in January, assessing Ankara as key strategic ally. Very soon, NATO
and the US will finalize plans to establish military bases in Romania
and Bulgaria.
EDITORIAL STAFF:
|
CONTACT AND REFERENCE
|
Dr. Plamen Pantev, Editor–in–Chief
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ISSN 1311 – 3240
|
Dr. Tatiana Houbenova-Delissivkova
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Address: ISIS, 1618
Sofia,
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Mr. Valeri Rachev, M.
A.
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P. O. Box 231, Bulgaria
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Mr. Ivan Tsvetkov, M.
A.
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Phone/ Fax: ++(359-2-)
551 828 |
Dr. Todor Tagarev
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E-Mail Address:
isis@mgu.bg |
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