BALKAN REGIONAL PROFILE:
THE SECURITY SITUATION AND THE REGION-BUILDING EVOLUTION OF
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
(A Background and June 2000 Issue in Brief)
Research Study 6, 2000
Hard copy: ISSN 1311 - 3240
AN
I S N-SPONSORED MONTHLY
ELECTRONIC PERIODICAL
I
INTRODUCTION
II
CONFLICTS AND POST-CONFLICT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BALKANS
1. The
post-conflict situation in Kosovo
2. The
Post-war rehabilitation of Bosnia and Herzegovina
III
THE NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES: SPECIFIC ISSUES
1. FRY
2. FRYOMacedonia
IV
THE BILATERAL RELATIONS AND REGIONAL INITIATIVES IN THE BALKANS
1. Bilateral Relations
2. Regional Initiatives
V
THE ECONOMIC SITUATIONS OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES AND THE REGION
1. Bulgaria
2. FRY
VI
THE INFLUENCE OF EXTERNAL FACTORS ON THE REGION: NATIONAL GREAT POWERS AND
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
1.
The United Nations
2. NATO
3. EU
4. USA
5. China
VII
THE SECURITY SITUATION AND THE REGION-BUILDING EVOLUTION: CONCLUSIONS
A
year ago in June the military campaign of NATO against the Former Yugoslav
Republic (FRY) came to an end. Much
has been done since then, and still more needs to be accomplished.
Despite
the triumphant cries of official Belgrade that Serbia is now a greater nation
than it was ten years ago, and despite the “historic rebuilding” of the
ruined country, it is clear that reconstruction is limited and inadequately
funded. The living standards of the
Serbian people continue to drop with a dictator still in charge. The struggle of the international community to achieve
peace in Kosovo continues, despite the obstacles created by Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic and the past, deeply rooted hatreds between
Albanians and Serbs. It has become
obvious during the past year that the future of South-Eastern Europe means more
than simply overcoming the conflicting relations in former Yugoslavia.
The Pact for Stability was launched as a qualitatively new strategic
instrument of external "intervention" in the region. Bulgaria and Romania started their accession negotiations
with the European Union (EU), and Croatia joined NATO's Parnternship for Peace
program. The EU will soon start
stabilisation and association talks with other countries from the region.
Clearly these trends are the way of the future for the Balkans – not
the continuing mafiotisation of the Serbian statehood, not the assassination
attempts against opposition leaders like Vuk Draskovic in Serbia, and not the
concerns of how the Yugoslav armed forces would react if thrown against their
own people. Many soldiers would defect from the army, others would ruin
their lives if they joined the repression of their people. Serbian society can see easily that the Serbs are not a hated
people – the EU, the Stability Pact, and FRY's
neighbours are doing their best to give support in the environment of a
dictatorial regime. National and
international attention is focusing more and more on the best and most fair way
of getting rid of Milosevic and his clique that introduced legislation for
criminal punishment of "intentions" rather than of proven acts of
terrorism. The greatest challenge
today for the Serbian opposition and society, for FRY's neighbours and for the
international community is to prevent civil
war in the country. A united
opposition and flexible treatment of the individual Milosevic case are the two
prerequisites for averting the next war in the Balkans.
At
present the Kosovo Force (KFOR) is still needed to secure a liveable
environment in Kosovo and to provide support to the UN Mission in Kosovo
(UNMIK). The postal service in
Kosovo is once again operational, thanks to UNMIK administrator Bernard Kouchner.
In
June a tragic incident in Greece brought back memories of the still active
terrorist organisation “17th of November”:
the killing of the British military attaché in Athens. The murderers made a link between this act and the British
support of the “Allied Force” operation in Kosovo one year ago.
Several
senseless and destructive acts of violence and vengeance by ethnic Albanians in
Kosovo, including a land mine explosion under a car, shootings and grenade
attacks, took the lives of several Serbs and injured many more.
Bringing to justice the killers, however, as in most similar cases,
remains difficult. Meanwhile, KFOR
troops discovered several arms depots. Most
commentators believe the huge arsenals belong to the otherwise disbanded Kosovo
Liberation Army (KLA or UÇK). A
journalist with clear KFOR accreditation was seriously wounded in down-town
Pristina, most probably because she had uttered words in a Slavic, maybe in
Serbo-Croat. Powerful mines exploded, and others were secured in time in Presevo,
Southern Serbia, at the border with Kosovo, several times this month.
An illegal Kosovar Albanian organisation, the “Alliance for the Future
of Kosovo”, declared at the beginning of June that it was going to treat the
Russian KFOR soldiers as "enemies" until they left the province.
Russian soldiers were fired at several times this month.
At
the beginning of June the UNMIK administration ordered an Albanian newspaper to
stop publication for eight days for hate content that led to the murder of a
Serb UN staff member, 25-year-old Petar Topoljski. As a result, the Serb National Council of Kosovo boycotted
meetings of the UN-led interim government as a
protest against the upsurge of violence. Moderate Serb leaders of Gracanica were accused by their
compatriots of betraying their own people by continuing to work under such
circumstances, another adverse
effect of the violence.
The
list of
significant challenges ahead in Kosovo, a
year after the end of the war, is considerable:
1) UNMIK is short-staffed by
40 per cent; 2) the justice
system is inadequate; 3)
because of Albanian acts of terror and obstructions by the Milosevic
regime, Serbs who remain in Kosovo feel insecure and are reluctant partners in
the efforts to establish democracy in Kosovo;
4) violence against the Serbs and Roma, the isolation of their
communities and the appearance of provocative “vigilante journalism” are
undermining the international effort in Kosovo and are setting back the process
of creating a tolerant and democratic society;
5) Milosevic has retained
power in Belgrade, and progress in the province and in other parts of the region
are being obstructed; 6)
the KLA continues its existence through clandestine police, intelligence
and counter-intelligence, mostly masked by the legal Kosovo Protection Corpse (KPC);
7) a more intensive search
of weapons’ depots, mostly belonging to the Kosovar Albanians, is needed;
8) the border regions of
Kosovo, where Albanians who never lived in this region are settling (in many
cases as trafficers of weapons, drugs and illegal migrants), are neglected;
9) a special case exists on
the border between Kosovo and the Presevo area in Southern Serbia, from where
dangerous provocations against KFOR troops may be started; 10) contacts
with official Belgrade for dealing with practical problems are difficult;
11) the future of the
Pristina airport is a contentious
issue between KFOR and its Russian component, as well as with FRY, the sovereign
of the territory.
A
former commander of Serbian para-military formation The Panthers, 42-year-old
Ljubisa Savic, was killed on 9 June in Bielina.
The assassins are unknown. Savic
was close to the Bosnian Serbian leader Karadzic in 1992-95.
SFOR
soldiers arrested 26-year-old indicted war criminal Dusko Sickiriza on 24 June
in Priedor. He is accused of
killing 140 Bosnian Muslims and Croats.
The
first unit of the Bosnia and Herzegovina State Border Service (SBS) was
inaugurated in a ceremony at Sarajevo Airport on 6 June.
This is an important step in fighting the trafficking of women, illegal
immigration in general and cross-border trade in illegal goods..
The SBS is expected to take control of three other entry points in July,
and expansion will continue until all entry points along the border are staffed. Once the service is complete, some 3'000 police will be
present at more than 240 border crossings across the country.
There
is progress in police training and judicial reform. However, despite five sets of internationally-run elections
in five years, no local election has yet been fought on non-ethnic and
non-ideological grounds. Social
reconstruction in Bosnia and Herzegovina has to overcome seven significant
challenges: 1)
it needs to develop a National University;
2) to restore ethnic and
religious tolerance; 3) to give up
separatist ambitions and aims; 4)
Bosnian political leaders need to accept the concept of Bosnia as a state,
embracing democracy and a market-oriented economy;
5) the Dayton Agreement needs to be fully implemented;
6) good coordination of the
national components of the SFOR and their fighting readiness need to be
preserved; 7)
military support from FRY for the Bosnian Serbs needs to be cut by a
fundamental change in Belgrade.
Brigadier
Stephen Saunders, the British military attaché to Greece, was brutally killed
in Athens in the morning of 8 June. The
illegal left-extremist organisation “17th November” declared on 9 June its
responsibility for the killing. The
reason the terrorists point to is the key role Saunders played during the Kosovo
crisis.
The
group “17th November” was formed in 1975, and since then it has been
responsible for the killings of 22 Greeks and foreigners. No member of the
organisation has ever been arrested.
The
Greek Government prepared on 12 June a draft agreement on cooperation with the
US and the EU to counter terrorism. The
Greek Government also promised an award of US$2.83 million for information that
may lead to the arrest of the assassins of the British military attaché in
Athens.
The
adviser to the President of Montenegro on security issues, Goran Zugic, was
assassinated on 1 June in Pogdorica, Montenegro. He was 38 years old.
This was the first killing of a high-level Montenegrin politician.
The killing took place a few days before the municipal elections in two
major cities – Podgorica and Herzeg Novi.
The climate of fear and violence in Montenegro, as well as in Serbia, is
constantly perpetrated by Milosevic's regime in Belgrade.
In an interview with a Bulgarian daily newspaper on 5 June the Prime
Minister of Montenegro, Philip Vujanovic, said relations with Serbia had never
been worse. The leadership of
Montenegro was unable to negotiate an agreement with the political regime in
Belgrade, the latter was neglecting all proposals from Podgorica, and only the
Serbian democratic opposition could be the partner,
Vujanovic said. He also said
that after the failure of the economic blockade, Milosevic was beginning to
pressure Podgorica through the armed forces.
The municipal elections in Podgorica and Herzeg Novi (comprising one
third of the 600'000 population of the country) of 11 June were a reflection of
the balance of pro-Jukanovic and pro-Milosevic supporters:
Jukanovic's party won in the capital, and the party of FRY Prime Minister
Momir Bulatovic won in the Adriatic coastal town of Herzeg Novi.
The fears of a crackdown in Montenegro led the president to a tactic of
easing the tensions on the eve of the elections after the killing of Zugic.
The once-promised referendum was never mentioned during the campaign,
notwithstanding the unwillingness of Podgorica to be represented by Belgrade in
the UN. As a result the elections
were free and fair and were conducted in a peaceful atmosphere.
The
armed forces of FRY, including its air forces, conducted on 3 June the biggest
tactical exercise for several years. On
the last weekend of June, the Yugoslav army began exercises in Montenegro near
the border with Albania.
Serbia’s
best-known opposition figure, Vuk Draskovic, survived a second assassination
attempt on 16 June, after gunmen fired automatic-weapons through a window at his
holiday home as he watched television. Draskovic
accused Milosevic's secret police of trying to kill him, but he was not
seriously injured in the attack: the bullets merely grazed his left ear and his
right temple.
The
International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) issued on 21
June a warning that international punishment and sanctions would follow against
any country that provided shelter to Milosevic.
The
Yugoslav Parliament is processing a draft bill of the government for fighting
terrorism. The opposition forces in
FRY are worried that the law will be used to persecute the enemies of
Milosevic's regime. The draft law
is to be voted on on 30 June by the two chambers of the parliament in an
extraordinary session.
A
restructuring of the FYROM Government will lead to the dismissal of eight
ministers due to the cut of eight former ministries. Completion of the reorganisation is planned for mid-July.
The ratio of coalition party representation, including that of the ethnic
Albanian party, will not change.
The
FYROM Parliament adopted a law on 23 June that gives regulated access to the
individual files of the secret police. Initial
data show there are about 14'000 files. A
text in the draft law providing for declarations of civil servants about their
formal links with the secret services was dismissed during the discussions.
a. Bulgaria-FRY.
(1)
The FRY Foreign Ministry accused the Bulgarian Government of violating
United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1244 with its decision to open
a liaison bureau in Pristina. The
opening of the bureau had been encouraged earlier by UNMIK administrator Bernard
Kouchner. It will be organised in a
similar way to the Greek liaison bureau. Bulgaria
needs this bureau to support the activity of 60 international police from
Bulgaria, whose number will soon rise to 100, and of the 40 Bulgarian KFOR
peacekeepers. Greece, the US, the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands and
Turkey already have representation bureaus in Pristina.
Such bureaus are fully consistent with UNSC Resolution 1244 and the
peacekeeping role of the UN. (2)
The Mayor of Sofia, Stefan Sofianski, visited Serbia and Montenegro on
10-14 June. He had been invited by Serbian opposition leader Zoran Djindjic and
the mayor of Podgorica. Sofianski
discussed self-government of the municipalities with Serbian mayors elected by
the votes of the opposition.
b. Greece-FYROMacedonia.
After
a six-month halt negotiations between the two countries about the name of
FYROMacedonia were continued at the United Nations Head Quarters in New York on
18 June. The ambassadors of the two
states in the UN are conducting the negotiations.
A compromise on the name “Republic of Macedonia” is imminent and
would distinguish the present FRYOM from the geographic region "Macedonia"
in northern Greece.
c. Bulgaria-FYROMacedonia.
Bulgarian
Minister of the Interior Emanuil Yordanov and FYROM Minister of the Interior
Dosta Dimovska met in Sofia on 18-20 June.
They concluded an agreement to tighten border controls and to take joint
measures against illegal migration. This
is the third document on border cooperation, following previous protocols for
maintaining border installations and for preventing cross-border incidents.
Dimovska also met with the Bulgarian president and the prime minister.
d. Turkey-Bulgaria.
Bulgarian
Minister of Regional Development and Public Works Evgeni Chachev and Deputy
Prime Minister of Turkey Cumhur Ersumer agreed in Istanbul on 28 June to double the Bulgarian
export of electricity to four billion kilowatts a year in exchange for transport
infrastructure construction by Turkey on Bulgarian territory.
Bulgarian
National Coordinator of the Pact Nikola Karadimov proposed on 8 June in
Thessaloniki to host an annual forum “Mini-Davos” within the context of the
Pact for Stability in South-Eastern Europe.
At a working table meeting, ideas of cooperation on national investment
projects within the existing network of donors were discussed.
Karadimov suggested opening a bureau of the special representative of the
Pact for Stability, Bodo Hombach, in Sofia.
The
gross national product (GNP) of Bulgaria has risen by 4.8 per cent in the first
quarter of this year, compared to the previous one.
The rise of industrial production by 6.2 per cent and of construction by
16.5 per cent are the main reasons for the improved macroeconomic situation.
Investments in the same period have increased by 18 per cent.
Labour productivity in Bulgaria and in all Eastern European countries is
between one and four decades away from the same indicator in the EU.
The
2001 budget forecast was presented on 12 June to the prime minister.
Economic growth is expected to be 5 per cent, annual inflation 3.5 per
cent and the budget deficit between 1.5 per cent and 2 per cent.
Tax relief is also planned for 2001.
The
average salary in May in FRY covered less than half the cost of living for a
family of four. The prices in May
have risen by 11.2 per cent, compared to the previous month.
The budget income for the last year was 25 per cent less than planned.
According to economic experts in Belgrade, Serbia is in no position to
return the US$300 million loan from China and the US$400 million debt to Russia
for natural gas in the past two years.
A
report of the UN Secretary General of 1 June states that contacts between Greek
and Turkish Cypriots have increased in recent months. Turkish Cypriot authorities have lifted unnecessary and
onerous measures affecting visits to the Greek Cypriots and Maronites in the
north. The third round of proximity
talks on Cyprus will be held on 5 July in Geneva. The report recommended a six-month extension, to 15 December,
of the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus.
NATO-Bulgaria:
(1)
On 20-21 June General Joseph Ralston, SACEUR, visited Sofia and met with
the president, the prime minister, the minister of defence and the chief of
general staff of the Bulgarian armed forces.
(2) A round table meeting of the political leaders of the
parliamentary parties on 20 June, organised by the Atlantic Club of Bulgaria,
confirmed their support and the national consensus on the future membership of
Bulgaria in the Alliance. Now 70
per cent of Bulgarians support the country’s membership in NATO.
(3) Defence Minister Boiko
Noev said on 27 June in Washington, DC, that Bulgaria expected to be invited to
join the Alliance with the second wave of new members.
(4) For the period of June
1999 to June 2000 KFOR troops and equipment from 17 countries have passed
through Bulgaria on their way to Kosovo.
(1)
The European Community (EC) decided on 7 June to abolish remaining tariff
ceilings for certain industrial products from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina
and Croatia. It also decided to improve market access for agricultural products,
to extend these preferences to Kosovo, to grant tariff quotas for Montenegrin
aluminium products and to streamline all trade preferences in a single new
regulation. The extended autonomous
trade preferences of the EC for the Western Balkans is one of the core elements
of EU policy in the region. (2)
The International Crisis Group of the EU recommended to Bulgaria that it
refrain from importing wheat from FRY as a measure for tightening sanctions
against Milosevic's regime. FRY
assures 25 per cent of its hard currency income through export of cereals.
(3) The EU summit Feira
meeting in Portugal of 19-20 June decided to stimulate cooperation with Serbian
companies that cooperate with the EU and are able to prove that their profits do
not go to the regime. (4)
Turkish and EC officials began a two-day "analytical examination"
on 22 June in Brussels of agriculture and fisheries, two areas that account for
nearly half the acquis communautaire (the
body of EU legislation) to which Turkey will have to adapt as a future EU member
state. (5)
EC President Romano Prodi announced on 23 June the EU's readiness to
invest in Serbia, if the country is democratised.
Prodi recommended to the Serbian opposition to unite for the autumn
election. According to Prodi, Milosevic's regime is an obstacle to the
integration of FRY into Europe.
US-Bulgaria.
(1) Three US senators from
the Senate Intelligence Commission, including its chairman Richard Shelby,
visited Sofia on 4-6 June and met with the president, the prime minister, the
interior minister and the director of the Bulgarian National Intelligence
Service. Before visiting Bulgaria
they went to Russia, the Ukraine
and Turkey. (2)
The US Army expressed an interest on 8 June in renting the Bulgarian
armed forces exercise ground at Shabla for its own field exercises.
(3) Bulgarian Defence
Minister Noev began a visit to the US on 26 June.
The technical equipment of the Bulgarian armed forces was a major topic
of discussion of the Bulgarian military delegation in Washington, DC.
US-Albania.
The US State Department issued a travel warning on 12 June in response to
Albania's unstable security situation.
US-FRY.
The US Senate unanimously decided on 24 June to cut economic aid to
Russia proportionate to the loans, financial support and energy deliveries
Moscow gives to Belgrade.
The
prime minister of China and a delegation of 116 started an extended European
visit in Sofia on 27-29 June. The
choice for the start of the visit was not coincidental: 50 years ago Bulgaria
was the first Eastern European country to recognise the sovereignty of the
People’s Republic of China and is persistent in not recognising the
sovereignty of the Republic of China. The
Chinese prime minister met with the president, the prime minister and the
speaker of the parliament, signed five cooperation agreements with his Bulgarian
hosts and increased by US$10 million the Chinese credit in support of Bulgaria's
payment balance. China declared it would support Bulgaria's application for
non-permanent UNSC membership.
Internal
actors and the international community in Kosovo are facing a long list of
important tasks, one year after the end of the “Allied Force” operation
against FRY. Much has been done,
but much needs to be further elaborated. Among
the priorities are returning confidence to the Serbian community and erasing a
creeping Albanian ethnic purity drive in Kosovo. The local ethnic entities and
the international community face similar post-conflict rehabilitation tasks in
Bosnia and Herzegovina. Preventing
a civil war, uniting the opposition, and its success in eventual democratic
elections in FRY despite repressive anti-terrorism law are the issues that need
to be solved. Preserving the democratic option in Montenegro in defiance of
pressure from the federal military is another crucial factor in improving the
fate of South-Eastern Europe.
A
brutal terrorist act in June in Greece reminds us of how internal terrorist
pressure may be linked with broader regional and international developments.
Bulgaria
is at a crucial period of its adaptation to the requirements of NATO membership.
Purposeful US support of this process may stimulate national efforts.
The EU has intensified its activity in turning South-Eastern Europe into
a European region. A great power
like China has demonstrated a special interest in a country from the region as a
stepping-stone to its European relations.
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EDITORIAL STAFF: |
CONTACT AND REFERENCE |
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Dr. Plamen Pantev, Editor–in–Chief |
ISSN 1311 – 3240 |
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Dr. Tatiana Houbenova-Delissivkova |
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Mr. Valeri Rachev, M. A. |
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Dr. Sc. Venelin Tsachevsky |
Phone/Fax: ++(359 - 2-) 551 828 |
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Mr. Ivan Tsvetkov, M. A. |
E-Mail Address: isis@cserv.mgu.bg |
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Dr. Dinko Dinkov |
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Dr. Todor Tagarev |
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