BALKAN REGIONAL PROFILE:
THE SECURITY SITUATION AND THE REGION-BUILDING EVOLUTION OF
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
(A Background and May 2000 Issue in Brief)
Research Study 5, 2000
Hard copy: ISSN 1311 - 3240
AN
I S N-SPONSORED MONTHLY
ELECTRONIC PERIODICAL
I
INTRODUCTION
II
CONFLICTS AND POST-CONFLICT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BALKANS
1. The
post-conflict situation in Kosovo
2. The
Post-war rehabilitation of Bosnia and Herzegovina
III
THE NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES: SPECIFIC ISSUES
1.Albania
2. Bulgaria
3. FRY
4.
FRYOMacedonia
5. Slovenia
6. Turkey
IV
THE BILATERAL RELATIONS AND REGIONAL INITIATIVES IN THE BALKANS
1. Bilateral Relations
2. Regional Initiatives
V
THE ECONOMIC SITUATIONS OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES AND THE REGION
1. Bulgaria
2. Bulgaria-Romania
3. Greece
4. Romania
VI
THE INFLUENCE OF EXTERNAL FACTORS ON THE REGION: NATIONAL GREAT POWERS AND
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
1.
The United Nations
2. NATO
3. EU
4. USA
5. Russia
VII
THE SECURITY SITUATION AND THE REGION-BUILDING EVOLUTION: CONCLUSIONS
A
combination of six factors determined the state of stability in the Former
Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), the most dramatic of all elements in the present
security mosaic of the Western Balkans:
First,
there was a mounting resistance of the Serbian opposition against the regime of
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic.
A rally of more than 30'000 in Belgrade on 17 May was activated by a
newly rising movement of students and young people – ‘Otpor’ (‘Resistance’).
Second,
there was a crackdown on the Serbian free media. The repression may be characterised as a typical
authoritarian/totalitarian political act of the worst type. The silencing of the media in the federation
is also a symptom of an increasing panic within the structure of the regime.
Third,
the upcoming municipal elections in Montenegro are inducing more polarity and
expectations of a more serious clash between Podgorica and Belgrade. However, the balance between the opposing
forces in the rebellious member of the federation does not provide for dramatic
changes after the election results. The
launch of infrastructure projects within the Pact of Stability for south-eastern
Europe and the practical engagement of the democratic government of Montenegro
in the pact help the consolidation of the republic's anti-Milosevic forces.
Fourth,
the internal tension within the armed forces and the police forces of the FRY
is also rising. The ‘sons of the
people’ who are in the Yugoslav army (VJ) and the police are facing the real
danger of becoming instruments of the regime for massive repressive and bloody
actions, if events escalate to a civil war, and opposition representatives
suggest Milosevic is driving the situation in this direction.
Fifth,
there were demonstrations of support for the Milosevic regime by the Russian
Government, which hosted the visits of the foreign minister and the defence
minister of the FRY. The latter is an
indicted criminal by the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia
(ICTY) in the Hague.
Sixth,
the US senate was in danger of committing a grave political and strategic
mistake by adopting a legal decision to withdraw American troops from Kosovo,
and this influenced the developments in the whole region. The consequences would have been grave and
would have nullified all that has been done to reach greater stability of the
region of south-eastern Europe in the past year.
Kosovo
and Bosnia remained the other two complicated variables in the Balkan security
equation. Despite some improvements,
Bosnia and Herzegovina remains a territory divided into three, rather than an
entity. While some steps of rapprochement
have been noticed in the Kosovo Transition Council, new violence, killings and
hostilities dominate the security landscape of the troubled province. The upcoming test of democratic
participation in the upcoming elections this autumn may become the first formal
step to the formation of institutions that would lead to the partition of
Kosovo. The level of political
consciousness and practical behaviour of the political leaders do not provide
much evidence to the contrary – of the democratic multi-ethnic future of
Kosovo. Yet there is time to consider
the options before and after the elections and adopt this dimension of the
internal political organisation that the international community is trying to
induce – of tolerance, pluralism and democracy.
In May
Bulgaria and Slovenia experienced internal political problems which may endure
in the Bulgarian case. Badly managed
corruption scandals within the ruling coalition and escalating governmental
criticism against the most successful segment of the democratic Bulgarian
society – the media – further complicate the government’s ability to steer the
situation to a constructive outcome. A
parliamentary and national consensus on EU and NATO membership has tended to
calm the existing tensions.
Croatia
formally joined NATO's Partnership for Peace, marking another step towards
stability in south-eastern Europe.
The
post-conflict situation in Kosovo in May was
relatively stable, without major outbursts of violence or breakthroughs in
peace-reconstruction.
On 4 May
the new SACEUR, General Joseph Ralston, visited the KFOR troops in Kosovo and
discussed the situation in the province.
On 8 May
Ekrem Rexha, a former KLA commander and director of environment and safety for
the municipality of Prizren, was shot and killed on his way to work. Four other people were injured in a separate
incident in Kosovo. On 15 May in the
village of Rimaniste in Kosovo a body was found and identified as the UNMIK
staff member of Serbian ethnicity, Petar Topljski, 25, who had been missing for
a week. Despite improved
conditions of security for UNMIK staff,
the killers found a way to their goal.
This act was intended to intimidate an UNMIK staff member of Serbian
origin, who had been working with dedication, despite threats and isolation.
On 20
May 250 US KFOR soldiers found an arms and ammunition store, including a rocket
launcher, explosives and hand grenades, in the Albanian populated village of
Uglidjare. A day earlier the 70
year-old Serbian peasant Dragan Peric of the village of Gojbulja, 25 kilometres
north-west of Pristina, was killed by three Albanians while tending his cattle
near his home.
On 2 May
in Gracanica UN Secretary-General Special Representative for Kosovo Bernard
Kouchner, Bishop Artemje of the Serb National Council, and KFOR Commander
General Joun Ortuno signed an agreement for the formation of a Joint Committee
on Returns of Displaced Persons and Refugees.
They will head the committee, which will work to ensure a safe and
sustained return of Kosovo Serbs. This
development was the first concrete step towards fulfilling the conditions of
complete participation by the Kosovo Serbs in the joint administrative
structure of Kosovo. A UN Security
Council delegation that was inspecting the province at that time welcomed the
agreement. In early May the Interim
Administrative Council of Kosovo adopted a broadcast media code of practice, a
regulation that will govern hate speech in the Kosovo media. There are, however, no corresponding rules
for print media. On 10 May the Kosovo
Transition Council (KTC) issued a statement condemning acts of violence against
all people of Kosovo. Kosovo Albanian
and Kosovo Serb leaders pledged to work with UNMIK to improve the situation of
the Serb and other minority communities in Kosovo, so they may realise their
fundamental right to security, freedom of movement, and participation in
government institutions. At the same
time Kosovo leaders demanded the unconditional handover of Kosovo Albanians and
members of other Kosovo communities detained in prisons in Serbia. The KTC also reaffirmed the right of all
refugees and displaced persons to return to their homes with dignity and
security. However, on 22 May the
authorities of Serbia confirmed the sentences of the Albanians jailed in
Serbian prisons.
The
general situation in Kosovo, especially security, could have been endangered if
the US Senate had adopted an amendment of Senator Byrd and Senator Warner,
within the Fiscal Year 2001 Military Construction Appropriations Bill, which
demanded the withdrawal of US peacekeepers from Kosovo, after imposing a
deadline on the withdrawal of 1 July 2001.
However, on 18 May the US Senate defeated the amendment by a 53 to 47
vote. The amendment would have meant the imposition of an artificial deadline –
a guaranteed factor of demoralisation of the US allies and partners already
involved in KFOR. It would have led to
the emboldening of the proponents of violence as a solution to the existing
disputes, both on the Serbian and on the Albanian sides. The regime of Milosevic would have received
an easy victory without firing a shot.
Previous statements to the European allies by the US that the Europeans
increase their share of the burden have long been met: more than 80 per cent of troops engaged in
KFOR are from European countries.
A real
issue that remains to be solved by the US Congress is the adoption of a
supplemental appropriation. Any US exit
strategy for American forces is contingent to civilian reconstruction and
rebuilding the administration in Kosovo.
On 18
May the UN Mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina released a summary report prepared
by the mission and the office of the UN High Commissioner on Human Rights
(UNHCR), concerning human trafficking in that country. The report covers incidents of trafficking
over an 18-month period and notes that Bosnia has emerged as a significant
destination for women from eastern Europe.
Evidence
shows also that Bosnia and Herzegovina is slow in preparing for the upcoming negotiations
with the EU for a stability and association agreement, expected to start this
autumn.
The
upcoming local elections in Albania are perceived by observers as a prelude to the national elections and as a
major test of Albania’s democratic development and of the stability of the
country and the region. Therefore all
stages of the election process need support – registration, including by
door-to-door enumeration, voting and counting.
International observation and monitoring, a major task for the OSCE
Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, may substantially help.
The
chain of events in May followed the logic of the previous month, when a political
crisis started to mount after the disclosure of high-level corruption cases in
the ruling party and government. The
pauperisation of the people led to many strikes in various branches of the
economy. Most dramatic and
destabilising was the protest by pilots of the national airline “Balkan”. The international polling agency Gallup
announced that 57 per cent of the voters in Bulgaria did not approve of Prime
Minister Ivan Kostov, and 53 per cent wanted his resignation. Only 26 per cent trusted him, and the hard
voting bloc of the ruling party shrank to 21 per cent. A correlating question and answer shows that
90 per cent of the people believe that the ruling United Democratic Forces
(UDF) coalition utilises its power for personal enrichment. In the meantime, the opposition Bulgarian
Socialist Party (BSP) held its regular party congress, which radically changed
the party’s position in favour of Bulgaria’s membership in NATO. Yet the mechanism for bringing the majority
of BSP voters to that thinking remains unclear. At the congress the BSP decided to submit a no-confidence vote of
the government in the parliament, despite the clear pro-government majority in
the People’s Assembly. The
no-confidence vote was defeated 133 to 67, with 16 abstentions. The prime minister’s interpretation of the
voting was that there was no corruption in the ruling party. The UDF started a political
counter-offensive the next day: first,
the Bulgarian media were blamed for raising the political tensions
artificially; and second, popular organisations of citizens, led by highly
respected intellectuals, were accused of plotting against the state and the
constitutional order because of their assessment of the social ineffectiveness
of the present political parties. The
internal contradictions in the UDF as well as the criticism of the mounting
energy in Bulgarian civil society and its media will not stop, and the
Government faces new political trials in the weeks and months to come.
In the
meantime, the political situation has been calmed down by the adoption by the
country’s parliament on 26 May of the first joint decision that calls for
Bulgaria's membership in the EU and NATO.
The prime minister acknowledged the wisdom by all who shaped this
historically significant consensual national position.
On 2 May
in Pozarevac, Serbia, three armed bodyguards of Marko Milosevic, Slobodan
Milosevic's son, attacked and beat three peaceful democratic activists from the
Otpor! movement of students and young people, formed in October 1998. Otpor! is committed to non-violence and
political independence. The opposition
Studio-B TV channel in Belgrade showed the incident. The state authorities fined it about $10'000 on 4 May. Events escalated when on 13 May Bozko
Perosevic, the regional leader of the Socialist Party of Milosevic in
Vojvodina, was shot dead in Novi Sad.
The opposition and its NATO supporters were accused of the
assassination. On 17 May the Studio-B
TV was attacked and occupied by the Serbian militia, following the orders of
the authorities. The electronic media,
owned by the Belgrade municipality, dominated by the Serbian Movement for
Renewal (‘Obnovlenie’) of Vuk Draskovic, was accused of appealing for unrest
and overthrowing the Belgrade regime.
Some smaller anti-Milosevic radio-stations were also closed. The reaction of the opposition was to
protest across the country, mainly in Belgrade, in a gathering of 30'000 people
on 17 May. The police and special
forces brutally countered the acts of violence, started by football fans, who
sided with the protesters in front of the Belgrade mayor’s office. The opposition parties pledged to give a new
start to the street protests against the Milosevic government.
Sweeping
changes on 6 May in the leadership of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
(FYROM) police angered the opposition pro-Serbian Social-Democratic Party
(SDP). The reason was the involvement
of police officers in arms and drugs traffic in the past 3 to 4 months and the
police-organised bugging scandal against the interior minister in
February. The information that was
collected has been used by the opposition SDP and by the Belgrade intelligence
services. On 17 May the president of
the republic, Boris Trajkovsky, told the parliament that he would not become
involved in the political fight between the ruling party and the opposition and
would not let hatred and nationalism overwhelm his country.
The new
Slovenian prime minister, the conservative politician Andrej Bajuk, 56, was
elected on 3 May, replacing Janez Drnovsek, from the centre-left. The parliament in Ljubljana elected Bajuk
with a narrow majority and mandated him to form the new government, which will
function until October/November this year, when general elections are to be
held. The government's major focus will
be the preparation of Slovenia for EU membership. From a legislative plan of 76 laws for this year, only 11 have
been adopted. After failing to get the
approval of his cabinet on 24 May, Bajuk will try again to handle the issue at
the beginning of June in parliament.
The
Turkish Parliament elected Ahmet Necdet Sezer, former chairman of the
Constitutional Court, on 5 May as the country’s tenth president. Three hundred and thirty MPs of 550 voted
for his election. The expectations in
and outside Turkey are that Sezer will boost the country’s democratic
credentials and make it fit for EU membership.
On 8 May
the Turkish police arrested a group of fundamentalists from the Grey Wolves
group. The arrest is in connection with
the assassination of Turkish journalist Ugur Mumdzhu in February 1993.
a) Bulgaria-Romania
(1) The Romanian minister of the environment
announced on 22 May the government’s decision to close the chemical plant in
Turnu Magurele, which regularly causes transborder air-pollution in Nikopol,
Bulgaria, until cases of air-pollution can be prevented . (2)
On 25 May in Rousse, Bulgaria, a joint Bulgarian-Romanian expert group
discussed details of the construction of the second bridge across the Danube at
Vidin-Kalafat.
b) Greece-Bulgaria
Greece
has made available $1'125 million to start the construction of the road between
the border towns of Ksanti (Greece) and Rudozem (Bulgaria). A long-standing problem of migrating bears
has been overcome; a tunnel is planned to avoid disturbing the natural routes
of the bears in the bordering region.
c) FYROMacedonia-Bulgaria
On 15-16
May Bulgarian President Petar Stoyanov made the first official visit of a
Bulgarian president to FYROM at the invitation of his counterpart in Skopje,
Boris Trajkovsky. Stoyanov said that
from that moment on the two countries should go together to the EU and forget
the prejudices of the past. Nine
agreements were signed during the visit, on border demarcation, transborder
dispute resolution, cooperation in culture, science and education, tourism,
legal help for private cases, plant protection, veterinary/sanitary cooperation,
and standards.
d) FYROMacedonia-FRY
Talks
were held on 11 May in Skopje on the territorial border dispute between the two
countries at the FYROM-Kosovo (FRY) border.
The heights on the territory of FRY, claimed by FYROM, provide the
Serbian side with potential strategic control of the whole territory of the
southern neighbour. While the
authorities in Skopje say they will not make any compromises on the issue, the
Serbian counterparts use the negotiations as an opportunity to recall the
sovereignty of the Kosovo part of the Serbian territory and oppose any claims
of partitioning the province from the republic.
e) Turkey-Greece
(1) The two countries began their participation
in the NATO military exercise Dynamic Mix ( 20 May to 10 June). The exercise involves navy and air forces
and covers the whole area of the Aegean Sea to the port of Thessaloniki. Turkey, Greece and Italy are the hosts of
the exercise that comprises 14 allies, 15'000 troops, 65 ships and 290
aircraft, the largest NATO exercise in the south-eastern region this year. (2)
The two countries said in Florence during the NATO ministerial that they
would begin cleaning the Maritza River, the natural state border. Bulgaria, where the river originates, will
be included in the project.
f) Romania-Greece
The head
of the Greek Orthodox Church, Archbishop Christodulous, visited Romania on
21-27 May and met with the Romanian Orthodox Patriarch Teoktist. This is the first visit of the Greek
Archbishop to Bucharest since the changes in 1989.
g) Albania-Bulgaria
On 29-30
May the president of Bulgaria visited Albania and met with Albanian President
Rexep Meydani. They confirmed the
priority of the political and economic objective in the bilateral relations,
the construction of Corridor 8 from Burgas, on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast to
the Albanian Adriatic coast. The
corridor would include oil transportation facilities, road, railway and
telecommunication systems. By mid- June
the interior ministers of the two countries are expected to negotiate the
regulations that would bar transborder criminality. According to initial plans, the oil pipeline from Burgas to Vlora
should be constructed by 2005, 500km on Bulgarian territory and a further 400km
in FYROM and Albania. Forty per cent of
the Caspian Sea oil that goes to the Black Sea is expected to be transferred
westwards through this pipeline.
The Pact of Stability for South-Eastern Europe
On 23
May Pact of Stability Coordinator Bodo Hombach met with the President of Montenegro
Milo Jukanovic. They discussed the
funding aspects of three major infrastructure projects in Montenegro within the
Pact of Stability. The projects are
about a water-pipe system on the Adriatic coast, highways and the modernisation
of the port of Bar.
The Southeast European Defence Ministerial Process
Participants
in the Southeast European Defence Ministerial (SEDM) joined as observers the
American-Macedonian engineering field-training exercise Cornerstone 00-3 in
FYROM. The exercise began on 1 May and
will last till 30 June. It aims to
develop a common understanding of military interoperability in peace support
operations and foster mutual trust, respect and cooperation between the
participants. Four humanitarian civic
assistance projects, including renovation of medical clinics in Pepeliste and
Krivolak and minor engineering projects at two elementary schools, will be
completed. The exercise includes for
the first time military engineer observers from other countries participating
in the SEDM process. The SEDM brings
together three NATO countries – Greece, Turkey and Italy – and four countries
in the Partnership for Peace PfP partner and contending for membership in NATO
– Albania, Bulgaria, FYROM and Romania.
Slovenia regularly joins as an observer.
(1) The National Employment Service of Bulgaria
announced on 22 May that 726'358 Bulgarians, 19 per cent of the working
population, are unemployed. (2) At
the beginning of May the price of the Brady obligations on the foreign
debt dropped at the international
markets. The different obligations
marked 0.12 to 0.25 cents decreases.
According to a Deutsche Bank report, the political instability in
Bulgaria influences negatively the rate of the foreign debt obligations. (3)
A report by the ING, the Dutch Bank, at the beginning of May estimates
that Bulgaria needs 20 years to reach the income of the EU population. In the meantime, Bulgaria has to insure 17
per cent a year growth of the gross national product. Presently the income of the Bulgarian is 7 per cent of the
average EU income. While the Bulgarian
chief negotiator with the EU judged that on 1 January 2007 Bulgaria would be
ready to join the union, the ING report sets the date at 2008 to 2010 at the
earliest. (4) According to Jeffrey Sax, of Harvard University and economic
counsellor to the Bulgarian president, the problem in Bulgaria lies not with
high energy prices but with the low income of the people. Price rises at international markets and the
preservation of low incomes lead to pressure on the individual’s finances. The solution is not in fixing prices
artificially, but in raising economic productivity, so all can profit. The government has obligations to foreign
creditors and cannot allow itself to subsidise prices. Its space for manoeuvring is limited. The only way out is to accelerate economic
growth, a development that, according to Sax, is largely dependent on the
perspective of bureaucratic decisions of the EC in Brussels. The EU has the potential to include the
country in the process of lasting economic growth, if it so decides.
A
bilateral agreement of 2 May provides that Romania will take $2 less per 1'000
cubic metres of natural gas transited to Bulgaria. The agreement covers the period of 1 January 2000 till the end of
2004. The year’s profit from that
reduction is equal to $6. 4 million.
On 3 May
the EC proposed that Greece should join the Euro, increasing the EU’s single
currency area from 11 to 12 members at the beginning of next year. EU finance ministers, after consultations
with the European Parliament and a discussion among EU leaders in June, will
make the final decision. However, the
most important part has been passed by Greece; the country has fulfilled the
necessary conditions by bringing its inflation rate, long-term interest rates,
budgetary situation and exchange rate stability into line with the requirements
of the single currency. The EC urged
the Greek Government to continue a stability-oriented strategy based on a tight
budget policy and moderate wage increase.
The
Romanian Government and the International Monetary Fund have reached a
preliminary agreement on the extension of a $540 million standby accord. The IMF had approved until the end of May a
technical extension of the accord of which only $73 million has been
released. If the agreement is ratified,
the IMF will extend the standby accord to the end of February 2001.
The
proximity talks on Cyprus have been postponed from the initial date, 23 May,
after the illness of Glafcos Clerides, who recently had surgery. Clerides and Rauf Denktash are to resume
talks in Geneva on 5 July.
(1) Croatia formally joined NATO’s PfP and the
Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), after being invited on 10 May by the
North Atlantic Council. On 25 May, during the NAC ministerial in Florence,
Italy, Croatia signed the PfP framework document and became the 46th member of
the EAPC, composed of Allies and Partners, and the 26th member of the PfP. This major step towards Croatia’s
integration in the Euro-Atlantic community marks the recognition of the
achievements of the new Croatian Government in advancing regional peace and
stability, democracy and human rights.
(2) On 25 May in Florence,
during a meeting with the American Secretary of State within the NAC ministerial,
and in implementation of NATO’s South-East European Initiative, Bulgarian
Foreign Minister Nadezhda Mihailova has been asked to present the priority
issues in overcoming the obstacles to stability in the region on behalf of the
FRY's neighbours. Among other things,
she has mentioned the need for continuous support to the Government of
Montenegro, better targeting of sanctions against the FRY, restoring the
transportation on the Danube, a balanced treatment of Serbs and Albanians and
joint pressure on them to behave in a tolerant way. (3) The Bulgarian foreign
minister demanded at the EAPC meeting in Florence inclusion of Bulgaria at the
expected second round of NATO enlargement in 2002.
(1) Günter Ferheugen, the EU commissioner on
enlargement, demanded on 5 May that Brussels set clear deadlines for the
accession of the 12 candidates. His
concept is to carry out the enlargement in waves – first the central European
countries, then the countries of south-eastern Europe. Any candidate meeting the criteria for
membership would be welcome to join the union ahead of schedule. (2)
The Eurobarometre poll showed on 12 May the following approval by the
populations of EU member countries for the accession of the south-eastern
European candidate states: Bulgaria, 36
per cent; Romania, 34 per cent; Slovenia, 34 per cent, and Turkey, 30 per
cent. (3) The EU has planned €7 billion for infrastructure and
environmental improvement of the 10 central/eastern European candidate
countries. Bulgaria has applied, with 4
environmental projects for €171 million and with three transport infrastructure
projects worth €588 million. (4) The EU has decided to give a trade boost to
the Yugoslav Republic of Montenegro: it will be able to export aluminium to the
EU duty-free, after approval by the member states at the beginning of
June. The EU intends to ensure that
only locally produced metal benefits from the concession.
(1) US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright met
separately with the Turkish foreign minister and the Greek foreign minister on
2 May in New York, followed by a three-party meeting. At a dinner in New York, the Greek Foreign Minister Yeorios
Papandreou and Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem received Statesmen of the
Year awards from the East-West Institute.
Albright recounted how the two leaders had worked together to improve
bilateral relations on such issues as organised crime, the environment and
Turkish accession to the EU. She said
the US would do everything in its power to help the two countries sustain their
extraordinary momentum and encourage new steps to a comprehensive settlement on
Cyprus. (2) Greece was named one of the weakest links in anti-terrorism in a
State Department report on terrorism.
(3) On 12 May Albright hosted a
dinner in honour of Greek Orthodox Archbishop Demetrios in Washington, DC. She spoke of reconciliation among those who
lived around the Aegean Sea as the key to the future; of Greece’s special role
in helping to spread democracy and prosperity throughout south-eastern Europe;
and of the need of a comprehensive settlement on Cyprus. The US have a full-time Cyprus coordinator
at the State Department, whom the president has also appointed the special
presidential emissary for Cyprus. The
US strongly support the EU’s decision to start accession talks with
Cyprus. (4) On 1 May Secretary of Defence W. Cohen and the chairman of the US
Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Henry Shelton visited Kosovo, Camp
Bondsteel. They also visited the
FYROM. (5) The US Department of State has added six judges and prosecutors
who have taken repressive actions against the media and the opposition in FRY
to the visa ban list and have asked the EU to do the same. (6)
At a Wilton Park Conference in Brdo Castle, Slovenia, on 11 May, the US
permanent representative on the NAC, Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, sketched
the US agenda for south-eastern Europe:
a) stay the course in Bosnia and
Kosovo; b) build regional security
through the PfP and the EAPC; c) help aspirant states prepare for eventual NATO
membership; d) keep the OSCE actively
engaged in promoting democratic development, supporting human rights, and
building transparency and confidence about military activities; e) remain committed to the success of the
EU-guided Stability Pact for Southeast Europe.
(7) On 23-24 May General Edward
Anderson, director of the Department for Strategic Planning of the US Defense
Department visited Sofia and discussed the practical help in the next budget
year for the Bulgarian military reform Plan 2004 by the US. He said Bulgaria played a pivotal role for
the security of south-eastern Europe.
The big challenge for Bulgaria is finding all the resources needed for
the execution of the ambitious reform programme. (8) Bulgarian deputy defense
minister Velizar Shalamanov informed his US counterparts, on 25 May in
Washington, DC, of the progress of the Bulgarian armed forces in their
preparation for membership in NATO. (9) On 22 May the US secretary of state held
talks with Romanian Prime Minister Mugur Isarescu in Washington, DC, on
bilateral and south-east European issues.
They both expressed dismay at the increasing repression in Serbia and
discussed joint support for pro-democracy Serbs.
(1) The Russian Gasprom tzar, Rem Vyahirev,
visited Bulgaria and met with the president, the prime minister and Bulgargas
business partners on 25-26 May. Gasprom
may lower the price of the natural gas for Bulgaria if Bulgaria lowers the
transit tax of Russian gas to Turkey, Greece and the FYROM. Vyahirev was accompanied by former Russian
Ambassador to Sofia and now first deputy foreign minister Aleksandr
Avdeev. He presented an oral address to
the Bulgarian president by his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Avdeev
also attended the business talks between Vyahirev and the Bulgargas chiefs on
the construction of the gas transit infrastructure to Greece, Turkey and the
FYROM through Bulgaria. Avdeev also
received from the prime minister an invitation to the Russian prime minister
Mikhail Kasyanov to visit
Bulgaria. (2) Yugoslav Defence Minister
Dragoljub Ojdanic, the war criminal indicted by the ICTY in The Hague on
26 May 1999 for crimes committed in Kosovo, visited Russia on 7-12 May. He met with Russian Defence Minister Igor Sergeev
and discussed bilateral military cooperation, the situation in the Balkans and
the NATO operation in Kosovo. The
defence minister of the FRY was present at the military parade in Moscow,
honouring the 55-year jubilee of the victory against Nazi Germany. He also met with other senior Russian
officials. This visit and the Russian
reception was in violation of UNSC Resolutions 827, 1244 and others. (2)
On 15 May Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov met FRY Foreign Minister
Jivadin Jovanovic in Moscow. Ivanov
considers the isolation of FRY counterproductive, and that bringing FRY into
the security issues of the region may lead to a solution. Russia pledged to continue to help stabilise
the region. The two foreign ministers
declared similarities in their positions on many international issues. Jovanovic met acting minister of economics
Alexander Shapovaliants. The FRY will
receive $102 million credit and oil and oil products worth of $32 million;
Russian entrepreneurs will join the reconstruction activities in FRY in the
transport, gas and oil infrastructure and industrial sectors. (3)
On 25 May in Florence, at the EAPC and the Joint Council NATO-Russia
meeting, Ivanov extended an apology for the visit of Dragoliub Ojdanic. A chain of bureaucratic mistakes in Moscow
was given as the reason for the diplomatic gaffe. Ivanov said those responsible for the invitation would be
punished. However, few would believe
there had been an innocent mistake in bringing two key FRY ministers – one of
them an indicted criminal – to downtown Moscow, one after the other. (4)
On 29 May leaders of the Serbian opposition Vuk Draskovic, Zoran
Djindjic and Voislav Kostunitsa visited Russia. Draskovic accused Russian officials earlier this month of
supporting the Belgrade regime’s attack against the media during the visit of
the FRY Foreign Minister to Moscow. In
Moscow they were received only by Russian MPs and were denied a meeting with
Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov. It was
a clear sign of continuing Russian support for the present official leaders of
Belgrade.
Fragile
stability and a fragile tendency to economic vitality characterised the
situation in Kosovo. The continuing
challenge the situation presents, and the need to preserve the vital
relationship with the other NATO Allies of the US, provided for a Senate vote
that will keep US troops as part of the KFOR with no fixed deadline. The need for burden-sharing with the
European Allies has been met: more than 80 per cent of the troops in Kosovo are
European. The need for effectiveness
remains.
The
escalation of internal tensions in FRY led to brutal suppression of the
democratic media and the opposition.
The armed forces and the police of the federation face hard choices,
with dramatic consequences for the future of their country – should they
support a dictator and his clique or not allow themselves to be dragged into a
bloody clash with their own people?
The
importance of external powers to the region remains decisive for the future of
south-eastern Europe. Russia’s support
to official Belgrade is strongly criticised by the opposition in FRY. Russia's playing the "Serbian
card" is not well received by others in the area. The involvement of the EU and the Stability
Pact is crucial for preserving the stabilisation and region-building
tendencies. The acceleration of the
inclusion of Bulgaria and Romania, as well as of Slovenia, in NATO has become a
more necessary factor in regional stability than before. The role of Croatia as the 26th PfP
participant in the stabilisation of south-eastern Europe increases. The continuation of the Greek-Turkish
rapprochement is becoming part of the "hardware" of regional stability.
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EDITORIAL STAFF: |
CONTACT AND REFERENCE |
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Dr. Plamen Pantev, Editor–in–Chief |
ISSN 1311 – 3240 |
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Dr. Tatiana Houbenova-Delissivkova |
Address: ISIS, 1618 Sofia, |
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Mr. Valeri Rachev, M. A. |
P. O. Box 231, Bulgaria |
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Dr. Sc. Venelin Tsachevsky |
Phone/Fax: ++(359 - 2-) 551 828 |
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Mr. Ivan Tsvetkov, M. A. |
E-Mail Address: isis@cserv.mgu.bg |
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Dr. Dinko Dinkov |
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Dr. Todor Tagarev |
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