BALKAN REGIONAL PROFILE:
THE SECURITY SITUATION AND THE REGION-BUILDING EVOLUTION OF
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
(A Background and July 2000 Issue in Brief)
Research Study 7, 2000
Hard copy: ISSN 1311 - 3240
AN
I S N-SPONSORED MONTHLY
ELECTRONIC PERIODICAL
I
INTRODUCTION
II
CONFLICTS AND POST-CONFLICT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BALKANS
1. The
post-conflict situation in Kosovo
2. The
Post-war rehabilitation of Bosnia and Herzegovina
III
THE NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES: SPECIFIC ISSUES
1.
Bulgaria
2. FRY
3. FRYOMacedonia
4. Turkey
IV
THE BILATERAL AND MULTILATERAL RELATIONS. THE STATE OF REGIONAL INITIATIVES IN THE BALKANS
1. Bilateral Relations
2. Trilateral Cooperation
3. Multilateral Cooperation
4. Regional Initiatives
V
THE ECONOMIC SITUATIONS OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES AND THE REGION
1. Bulgaria
2. EU-Southeastern
Europe
3. The European
Investment Bank (EIB)-Bulgaria
4. Turkey
5. The Southeast Europe Equity
Trust
VI
THE INFLUENCE OF EXTERNAL FACTORS ON THE REGION: NATIONAL GREAT POWERS AND
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
1.
The United Nations
2. NATO
3. G-8
4. EU
5. China
6. Russia
VII
THE SECURITY SITUATION AND THE REGION-BUILDING EVOLUTION: CONCLUSIONS
The
month of July 2000 proved the unsustainable tendency of FRY’s present
structures: ‘rebel’ Montenegrin leaders
are deprived from effective participation in the federation's government; their
voice, calling for change in constitutional arrangements, is simply not heard;
the Yugoslav army (VJ) is taking hold of the federated republic by
stealth. Approval of a constitutional
change by the FRY Parliament in early July, allowing President Slobodan
Milosevic to run for another term in office while diminishing the role of
Montenegro, adds to this tendency.
Signals from major European countries that they will not accept the FRY
election results under Milosevic's dictatorial terms confirm the trend in
direction. And, of course, the future
status of Kosovo adds to the looming Yugoslav constitutional crisis: while formally it is part of the Yugoslav
Federation and of Serbia, the reality does not confirm it. Autumn elections under preparation may
dramatically lead to Kosovo separating from FRY. This may be the surprise Milosevic is preparing for the
international community – to free a province likely to become an unsustainable
state and provoke ethnic problems in FYROM and Albania while claiming
acceptance for this ‘generous’ gesture of his own constitutional
transformations and prolongation of his power.
Pressed to the wall from every direction, Milosevic is trying to strengthen
his position alone, including the sacrifice of some FRY territory – a move that
would further complicate the regional situation. Unless Yugoslav society assumes a different logic of behavior –
of clear internal democratic change, of regional cooperation and European
integration, escalation of present tensions will persist, and multi-tempo
integration of Southeastern Europe in the EU will historically deprive the
Serbian people of a chance to improve their human fate as quickly as
possible. A clearly displayed
international consensus, especially of the USA, the EU, and Russia, may
significantly help orient the Serbian people.
A United
States Institute of Peace experiment in July revealed real potential for
reconciliation and rapprochement between Kosovar Albanian and Serbian
leaders. Now they need to prove that
option in the field. The continuing
tense ethnic situation and the upcoming autumn elections are real tests for
local leaders' skills in serving their own people.
Bilateral,
trilateral, multilateral, and region-wide initiatives proved in July that there
is another Southeastern Europe too: of
cooperation and good neighborly relations.
The United States demonstrated in July its continued interest in solidifying
its military relations with Romania and FYRO Macedonia. The EU continued to implement one of its
major strategic tools in the region – of closer integration of Bulgaria,
Romania, and Slovenia in the Union by making another step in the process of
lifting Schengen border regime obstacles for citizens of Bulgaria.
Albanians
and Serbs clashed again in the town of Mitrovica after Albanians attacked
Serbian buildings with grenades on 15 July.
KFOR French soldiers intervened to separate angry mobs from parts of the
town in conflict. Two apartments
housing UN police were broken into and looted by groups of Serbs, and a UN
police car was attacked. Full police
patrols from UNMIK have now resumed in northern Mitrovica.
On 18
July the Secretary General of NATO, Lord George Robertson visited the Kosovo
province briefly on 18 July along with the 19 ambassadors to NATO. The visit took place one year after KFOR
began the UN's peacekeeping operation.
The
registration of Kosovo’s population, which will be the basis of voter
registration for this autumn's municipal elections, ended on 19 July with over
1 million people registered. The UNMIK
estimate for eligible voters was around 1.2 million. A setback in this process was that practically no Serbs
registered. Tensions and clashes
cancelled UNMIK efforts to persuade the Serbs to register for voting.
Elections
are expected to take place in October, and 20 political parties have already
registered for elections. Campaigning
will last 45 days before the election day, which has not yet been fixed.
In an
interview for the Austrian newspaper “Standart” on 18 July, a Kosovo Albanian leader, Ibrahim Rugova, said
that the question of Kosovo’s independence is a matter of formality; only the
supporting documents must be arranged.
According to Rugova, the province's future will be determined by this
October's elections. He also stressed
the vital presence of NATO troops as the real guarantor of stability in Kosovo.
The
commander of the 3,600-member Russian contingent in Kosovo, General Valeriy
Evtuhovich, said in an interview with the Russian newspaper “Kommersant”
in mid-July that Russia should continue to participate in the KFOR
operation. Taking an isolationist
position on conflict resolution, especially in Europe, the general said,
is incorrect. The political and the moral advantages Russia would gain from
that cannot comparea with the financial
costs..
US
President Bill Clinton praised the Congress on 13 July for its fiscal year 2000
legislation that provides urgently needed resources to keep the peace and build
stability in Kosovo. It bolsters democracy and reform elsewhere in Southeast
Europe by fully funding the Administration’s request for military operations in
Kosovo. However, the president
expressed disappointment that the bill does not include funding he requested
for UN peacekeeping operations in the region. He had also requested security
and operational needs for embassies in Kosovo and assistance for economic and
democratic reforms in the region. The
requested funds could have supported essential civilian infrastructure that
would have facilitated a prudent exit strategy for Kosovo and achieve long-term
stability in the Balkans. The chairman
of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Henry Shelton, visited Kosovo for
briefings of the Falcon Task Force on 19 July and met US troops at Camp
Montieth, Novo Brdo, and Vitina.
Expert
reports in July show that the 1999-2000 harvest season has seen a sharp rise in
agricultural production in the province.
Thus a further phase-down of food aid in the July-September period can
continue as scheduled.
Representatives
of Kosovar Albanians and Serbs signed a joint Pact Against Violence Declaration
on 23 July, following a workshop at Airlie House in Warrenton, Virginia,
organized by the United States Institute for Peace (USIP), Washington, D.
C. The representatives of the
conflicting ethnic communities agreed to continue their dialogue in Kosovo. The declaration commits both sides to
cooperate in the areas of elections, media, civil society, security, and return
of refugees and displaced people. The
workshop has been an important communication opportunity that may create new
openness for the people of Kosovo. In
the area of security they agreed to carry out a Campaign Against Violence that
would begin with a "Day Against Violence". While the two sides differed on conditions for the elections,
they both acknowledged the need to have elections in Kosovo.
Bosnia-Herzegovina
became the 98th State to sign the Rome Statute of the International Criminal
Court on 17 July.
General
Shelton visited Sarajevo on 17 July to meet with Army Lt. Gen. Ronald E. Adams,
commander of the SFOR, for an update on operational matters.
The
Clinton Administration approved a report of the General Accounting Office (GAO)
on 19 July that crime and corruption are endemic problems in Bosnia seriously
inhibiting economic and political development as well as implementation of the
Dayton Peace Agreement. At the same
time the Administration acknowledged that reform-minded Bosnians are willing to
work hard to change the situation. The
entire thrust of US assistance for Bosnia is designed to help these people
establish a peaceful, transparent, and democratic society. Recent US assistance has focused on a
variety of reform measures such as establishing governmental transparency and
accountability, privatizing key industries, creating impartial law enforcement
and judicial bodies, and abolishing institutions that have been important
funding sources for forces opposed to the Dayton Peace Accord.
The
first ever Annual Report for the State of the National Security of Bulgaria in
1999 was declassified by the Government on 4 July. The 50-page report responds to the National Security Concept
adopted in 1998, requiring the government to submit an analytical report and assessment
every year on the state of the country’s national security. The ruling majority and with some opposition
parties approved the text of the government document. The biggest parliamentary opposition group – the Democratic Left
and other smaller opposition political groupings and independent MPs ¾ voted "no". The
most disputed aspects of the annual report were (1) internal social and
economic aspects of the country’s national security – incorrectly reflected in
the report, according to the Socialist opposition, (2) the assessment on Russia's
role in forming Bulgaria's national security environment, (3) the
underestimated plight of Bulgaria's Roma population, and (4) missing details of
the report's section on defense. The
last issue will be addressed in detail in the government's upcoming annual
report on national defense this fall. Independent security experts in Bulgaria
say the other three disputed aspects
need study and, most importantly,
are issues still unsolved by the present government, parliament, and
president.
All
parties in parliament demonstrated consensus on issues discussed in the report
on Bulgarian integration in the EU and NATO.
The FRY
parliament approved constitutional changes on 6 July that require direct
popular election of the Yugoslav president and the upper house of
parliament. The changes also allow two four-year terms for president and a
higher threshold for impeachment. This
would give Milosevic the chance to remain in power after July of 2001 when his
term that started in 1997 expires.
Until now, the two houses of the FRY parliament elected the federal
president for one four-year term, and the upper house of the federal parliament
was elected by the parliaments of the two constituent republics. Milosevic was nominated as the presidential
candidate of the ruling Socialist Party on 28 July. According to the changes,the federal government will organize
elections for both president and parliament, not the republics, as the previous
regulation required. Politically this
means that Milosevic’s re-election will depend less on the opposition of
Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic.
Support for Milosevic in Montenegro varies between 30 and 50%, according
to different estimates. A second
consequence may be the escalation of efforts by pro-Djukanovic supporters to
break away from the federation before the Montenegrin authorities have turned
into insignificant constitutional factors – a clear provision of the new
legislation.
The
municipal and parliamentary elections in FRY will take place 24 September and will coincide with the presidential
elections – an appropriate combination for Milosevic during a period when the
regime Is hardly pressing independent media and the opposition continues to
quarrel over petty issues. It does not
have yet a clear candidate to run against Milosevic, despite claims of
opposition unity.
The
lower house of the Yugoslav parliament passed the changes by a 95-7 vote and
the upper house by 27-0. There is no
doubt that the present FRY parliament is obedient enough to Milosevic to grant
him rules that could prolong his power for two more terms. On the other side, the new rules challenge
the opposition in Serbia and FRY in general to reject a democratic vote for
Milosevic and elect a democratic leader.
Neither the effectiveness of the present Serbian opposition nor the
atmosphere of missing democratic competition and suppressed media can lead to
an authentic democratic campaign, election process, and election results. The undisputed result is further
antagonising of the Montenegrin leadership, which was not consulted at all
during this constitutional re-engineering process. This is why the parliament of Montenegro decided on 8 July to
boycott the Belgrade constitutional changes.
The EU, the US government, and the G-8 foreign ministers meeting in
Japan in mid-July declared their support for Montenegro in this new
situation. The US Congress is going to
provide an additional $16.5 million support for democratization and economic
reform of Montenegro.
The
creeping Belgrade efforts to cancel Montenegro's existence as a state were also
displayed by the rising involvement of the Yugoslav Army (VJ) in the internal
affairs of Podgorica. The chief of the
Yugoslav General Staff, Neboisha Pavkovic, visited Montenegrin VJ units on 15
July and discussed plans for upcoming activities. Though Montenegrin governmental officials say the VJ is
considered illegitimate in Montenegro after its two year-long efforts to topple
the country’s reformist government, a federal patrol boat fired against a
smaller Montenegrin police boat on 24 July after a federal army helicopter
hovered over the target.
Presently
the USA and the international community do not favour Montenegro leaving the
federation, and they are trying to promote a new relationship between the two
republics based on democracy.
(1) The government of Prime Minister Liubcho
Georgievsky survived a ‘no-confidence’ vote on 4 July (72-23 with 9
abstentions). The opposition
pro-Serbian and pro-Milosevic Social-Democratic Party (the former Yugoslav
Communists) demanded the government's resignation on grounds that it is the
source of crime in the country. The
opposition assessed positive bilateral and good-neighborly relations of the
present government in Skopje with Bulgaria as a betrayal of their country's
national cause – a residual Belgrade position from the times of Tito and
Milosevic, part of a nostalgia for former Yugoslav times. (2)
Prime Minister Georgievsky initiated a parliamentary vote on
restructuring the present government and decreasing the number of ministers
from 21 to 14. The issue was passed on
27 July, and President Boris Trajkovsky again granted the mandate to form a new
government to Georgievsky. The foreign
and interior ministers preserved their positions. The former minister of culture, Liube Paunovsky, took the
position of defense minister, replacing 80-year-old scholar Nikola Kliusev.
(1) The Turkish Constitutional Court decided on
7 July to consider in September the case for banning the Virtue Party – the
main Islamic party in the country ¾ because
it is succeeds the party of Necmetin Erbakan, a former prime-minister, who was
jailed for 18 months and seeks to cancelTurkey's secular constitution. (2) President Sezer of Turkey confirmed the
appointment by Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit of Mesut Yalmaz as a deputy prime
minister. He will be mainly responsible
for ties with the EU. Mr. Yalmaz
survived corruption charges in June.
a.
Bulgaria-Turkey.
Turkish Minister of Defense Sabahattin Chakmakoglu visited Sofia
on 6-7 July and met with his Bulgarian counterpart Boyko Noev. They agreed to meet again in this autumn and
sign documents of cooperation in the fields of repairing military hardware,
producing munitions, command and communications systems, and aviation.
b.
Croatia-FRY.
Croatian authorities received FRY representatives in early July at a fifth round of negotiations on the Prevlaka peninsula
issue. The chances for progress are very low. The protracted negotiations on the status of the
strategic strip of border land between the two countries will hardly be
finalised while the present regime in Belgrade is still in power. The UN Mission on Prevlaka is expected to be
extended at least to 15 January 2001.
c.
Croatia-Bulgaria.
The prime ministers of the two countries, Ivica Racan and Ivan
Kostov, met in Zagreb on 10-12 July during the first ever official visit of a
Bulgarian prime minister to Croatia.
They concluded two bilateral agreements – for combined international
transportation of goods and for cooperation on standardization, metrology,
certification, and accreditation.
Kostov also met with President Stipe Mesic
and Speaker of Parliament Zlatko Tomcic. The two prime ministers agreed that the
security situation in FRY is worsening due to constitutional tensions between
Serbia and Montenegro.
d.
Bulgaria-FRY.
(1) The mayor of Sofia
met in Sofia on 14 July with the Serbian mayors of cities and towns run by the
democratic opposition – Belgrade, Panchevo, Kraguevac, Pirot, Nis, and
Subotica. Invited guest to the meeting in
Sofia was the Mayor of Columbus, Ohio, USA. At this forum the mayors of
Sofia, Belgrade, and Columbus, Ohio, agreed
to cooperate on issues of purifying water for drinking, the cities’ garbage,
and municipal information systems.
(2) The first Bulgarian KFOR
platoon of 39 returned from its mission in Kosovo on 21 July. Bulgaria will continue to participate KFOR,
providing troops as well as civilian police for Kosovo.
e.
Bulgaria-Greece.
Prime Minister Costas Simitis of Greece visited Bulgaria on 18
July and met with his Bulgarian counterpart, Ivan Kostov, in the city of
Plovdiv. They discussed joint projects
in the areas of transport, energy, and communications. They signed a financial agreement on
taxation that improves the two countries’ relations on the basis of EU legal
requirements. The two prime ministers
agreed to improve their coordination in improving the regional security
situation. Simitis stressedGreek
support for Bulgaria’s membership in the EU and NATO. Greece is Bulgaria's
fourth largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year.
Albania-Bulgaria-FYRO Macedonia.
The Interior Ministers of these countries - Spartak Poci, Emanuil
Jordanov, and Mrs. Dosta Dimovska agreed on 16 July in Ohrid that experts of the
three countries will formulate details of cooperation in fighting organized
crime, illegal trafficking in people, armaments, and drugs. The ministers also discussed
bilateral issues.
The
foreign ministers of Albania, Bulgaria, FYRO Macedonia, Greece, Hungary,
Romania, and Turkey met on 14 July in Ohrid (FYROM). They discussed the conflict issues in FRY and their consequences
for the broader region as well as progress
in the Pact of Stability for South-East Europe. The fifth foreign ministerial meeting was
attended by the Stability Pact coordinator, Bodo Hombach. The foreign ministers proposed to Hombach
local companies be hired to carry out Stability Pact projects for the
region. The ministers calls for a
permanent donors’ network to guarantee the consistency of stabilization
efforts. The ministers also suggested a
prompt start-up of the “quick start” package, not waiting 12 months to launch it.
Numerous
bilateral and trilateral meetings also took place during the forum, including
Greek-Turkish and Bulgarian-Greek-Turkish talks.
a. The Pact of
Stability for South-East Europe
Stability
Pact Coordinator Bodo Hombach visited Bulgaria on 19-23 July. He had talks with the Bulgarian prime
minister, foreign minister, and finance minister. The three priority Bulgarian projects within the region's Pact of
Stability are the second bridge over the Danube at Vidin-Kalafat,
rehabilitation of some Danube ports, and reconstruction of Sofia Airport. Hombach visited the bridge construction site
on the Bulgarian side. He also visited
the first Rapid Reaction Force of seven countries from the region – the
Multinational Peace Force of South-East Europe (MPFSEE) in Plovdiv.
Hombach
reminded visitors in Berlin earlier in the month that the second bridge over
the Danube at Vidin-Kalafat is of vital European interest and part of the highway
linking Berlin with both Istanbul and Athens.
At his meeting with Prime Minister Kostov, Hombach was asked to support
the Bulgarian insistence on opening two checkpoints with Greece at Makaza and
Ksanti-Rudozem. MPFSEE commanders gave
the Pact of Stability coordinator projects worth Euro 5 million. Bulgaria also asked for support of electric
connectivity projects with Romania, FYRO Macedonia, and Albania. Hombach informed the media in Sofia that
Microsoft industrialist Bill Gates had called him to ask how he can join
construction of ‘high-tech parks’ in Southeastern Europe. According to Hombach, Bulgaria can play a
driving role in developing electronic information systems in the region. He said high-tech parks are a good way of
keeping young Bulgarians in their country and preventing their emigration. This is also a good project to boost the
national and regional economies technologically.
b. The
Southeast European Cooperative Initiative (SECI)
The
World Bank (WB) in Washington, DC, announced approval on 26 July of a $9.3
million credit for a project to strengthen and modernize customs administration
and border crossing facilities of FYRO Macedonia to prevent smuggling and
corruption while promoting cross-border trade and transportation. The Trade and Transport Facilitation in
Southeast Europe Project (TTFSE) is part of a regional program for Albania,
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYRO Macedonia, and Romania aimed at
fostering trade. It resulted from a
collaborative effort among the governments of these countries in association
with SECI.
Some important figures on
the state of the Bulgarian economy were publicized in July by the National
Statistics Institute (NSI), the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), and the
government. Unemployment decreased by
22,331 people in June and reached the figure of 696,551, amounting to
18.19% of the economically active
population. Seasonal engagements caused
improvement in the unemployment situation.
The government predicts reaching 15% unemployment by the end of the
year, but the NSI showed a different figure – 17.5%.
The
inflation rate was preserved within acceptable limits during the first five
months of the year – 2.47%, according to the NSI. Currency reserves increased for this period with 22.5%, which
guarantees stability of the currency board arrangement in Bulgaria. The country’s exports increased for the same
period by 23.7%, reaching the figure of $1,811 billion. Half of these exports were for the EU. Imports increased by 21.2% , reaching the
figure of $2,486 billion.
Bulgaria's
overall debt is estimated at $10,024 billion – $3,885 billion to official
creditors (the IMF, World Bank, EU, and Paris Club of countries); $5,534
billion to private creditors (the London Club), and $0,605
– the short-term debt. At the same time
African and Arab countries owe Bulgaria
$2.2 billion.
The
Government, which is still working under the currency board arrangement reached
an agreement with the IMF to decrease the present taxes and insurence levels in
the coming months.
EU finance ministers decided on 21 July to
give support for the Balkans during the 2001 fiscal year worth of Euro 614
million. This figure is Euro 200
million less than the proposal of the European Commission.
A bilateral agreement was reached on 26 July
for a loan to Bulgaria worth of Euro 100 million. The money will be invested in finishing 71 km of the Sofia-Burgas
highway. The EIB will grant another
Euro 20 million loan to improve the
“Trakia” highway after the first sum is realized.
Turkey decided on 25 July
to freeze for at least 10 years its project for constructing a nuclear plant
for lack of resources. The electric
power deficit will be compensated for by importing electric power from Bulgaria
and an increased search of natural gas resources in Turkey.
The US President’s national security
advisor, Samuel Burger, the president of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation
(OPIC), George Munoz, and George Soros of Soros Private Funds Management (SPFM)
launched the Southeast Europe Equity Fund In Washington DC on 26 July. It Is
intended to provide capital for new business development, expansion, and
privatization. The $150-million fund
will be managed by SPFM and financed by OPIC.
It is an initiative envisioned under the Stability Pact for South-East
Europe. The Stability Pact was launched
In Sarajevo on 30 July 1999 by the EU, the USA, and international financial institutions. The Southeast Europe Equity Fund will serve
Albania, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, FYRO Macedonia, Romania,
Slovenia, Montenegro, and Turkey.
UN
Secretary-General Kofi Annan opened the latest round of proximity talks on
Cyprus in Geneva on 5 July. Two Cypriot
leaders, Greek Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader
Rauf Denktash, began the proximity talks in December 1999. These talks have the character of
pre-negotiating sessions, trying to tackle core issues, but the negotiation
process had not yet begun. The Geneva
talks adjourned on 12 July, resumed on 24 July, and will proceed until early
August. They will resume once again on
12 September in New York.
(1) Twelve countries participated in a PfP
Exercise – “Rescue Eagle 2000”, in Romania 11-20 July. It simulated earthquake rescue operations. The
participating military service staff came from Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia,
France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Turkey, and the
United States. The purpose of the
exercise was to develop a common understanding of peace support operations and
to improve small-unit (company-sized and below) interoperability during such
operations. The training was designed
to deepen military relations, develop interoperable forces and command and
control structures, and prepare partners for peacekeeping, search and rescue, humanitarian
assistance, and peace support operations.
Training focused on staff planning, medical training, casualty treatment
and evacuation, sea-air rescue, checkpoint operations, patrolling and
fixed-point security, and convoy security.
(2) Bulgarian Defense Minister
Boyko Noev told the National Radio listeners on 9 July that there might be
military bases on Bulgarian territory if the country’s security is threatened
and if it becomes a member of a collective defense system such as NATO. (3)
A PfP navy exercise “Breeze 2000” started in the southwestern part of
the Black Sea on 22 July. It lasted
till 30 July and included participants from Bulgaria, France, Greece, Turkey,
Ukraine, and the United States. Italy
and Romania joined the exercise with observers. Bulgaria hosted the exercise and included a battalion from its
infantry. The exercise was commanded by
the Bulgarian navychief of staff , Vice-Admiral Peter Petrov, with sea
operations handled by Brigadier Admiral Emil Liuckanov. The exercise simulated humanitarian and
rescue operations in a disaster region.
The G –
8 summit statement on regional issues meeting in Okinawa said in its comments
on the Balkans that a democratic FRYugoslavia may be reintegrated in the
international community and play its rightful part in contributing to the
stability of the entire region. The
leaders of the eight great states expressed their deep concern about the
motivation and possible consequences of revised FRY constitution. The G – 8 leaders called on the government
in Belgrade to refrain from any action that could contribute to further
escalation of violence. They also
called on the opposition to contribute to peaceful democratic development in
the FRY, strongly opposed recent restrictions on the free press, and welcomed
continued consolidation of democracy in Montenegro. The G – 8 leaders reiterated their support for the democratically
elected authorities and urged them to continue the practice of restraint. French President Jacques Chirac said in his
speech that the situation in the region will not be stable as long as a regime
like that of Milosevic still exists in FRY.
Russia participated in the summit meeting through President Vladimir
Putin. Though Russia continues to
respect the existing order in Belgrade, there are concerns about how the
Milosevic policy will be reflected on Russia’s longer-term interests in the
region, Europe, and the world.
(1) The European Parliament adopted a resolution
In Strasbourg on 5 July that urges the Council of the EU Justice and Interior
Ministers to remove Bulgaria from the negative visa list of countries. The European Commission (EC) on 26 January
approved removing Bulgaria from the ‘list 101’ – of countries whose citizens
are obliged to get special Schengen visas.
The EU Council of Ministers of Justice and the Interior will hold a
meeting on 28 September and will formulate its position on the issue. In
EU countries with Schengen visa regime arrangements there are different
procedures of implementing Council of Ministers decisions. (2) EC President Romano Prodi sent a letter
on 26 July to the Bulgarian and Romanian prime ministers, answering the two
leaders’ letter of this April. Mr.
Prodi informed them that the EC will support the decision to invest Euro 22
million in clearing debris from the Danube.
This provides 85% of the money needed to carry out the operation. The Danube Commission can launch preparation
of the clearing operation before EU structures have finalized the financial
deal.
USA-FYRO
Macedonia.
The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Shelton, visited
Skopje on 19 July and discussed issues of regional stability with Gen. Jovan
Andrevski, chief of staff of the FYRO Macedonia armed forces.
USA-Bulgaria. (1) The USA's Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im Bank)
guaranteed a $77 million loan on 10 July
that will help modernize the Kozloduy nuclear plant in Bulgaria. Ex-Im Bank Chairman James A. Harmon said the
safety upgrade will ensure a safe, dependable energy infrastructure for
Bulgaria, contributing to the country’s economic growth potential and can pave
the way for increased trade opportunities between Bulgaria and the USA. With a loan from Citicorp North America,
Inc., Westinghouse Electric Company will manage the plant upgrade. (2)
The director of the American CIA, George Tennet,
will visit Bulgaria in August and will meet with Bulgarian officials.
USA-Bulgaria, Croatia.
The White House announced on 23 July that it
will allow Bulgaria, Croatia, and 11
other countries all over the world broader access to American products and
services linked with new information technologies. The condition is a satisfactory credit rating.
USA-Romania. The US State Department
issued a statement on 11 July on the third anniversary of the US-Romanian
Strategic Partnership, launched during President Clinton’s visit to Bucharest
in 1997. The partnership was designed
to establish a framework to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the areas of
regional and Euro-Atlantic security, military reform, economic cooperation, and
law enforcement. This January Secretary
Madeleine Albright and Foreign Minister Petre Roman agreed on an intensified
strategic partnership framework.
USA-Turkey. The USA and Turkey signed a
bilateral agreement on peaceful nuclear energy cooperation in Ankara on 26
July. It creates the framework for
scientific exchanges, joint research projects, and technology and material
transfers in civilian nuclear fields.
Russia-Bulgaria. The Russian Ambassador to
Sofia, Vladimir Titov, told the press on 7 July that Russia cannot forbid
anyone from joining NATO. However, the
ambassador said, Russia sincerely warned that its concerns, including its security, would be reflected in
Bulgaria's bilateral relations. The Russian-Bulgarian
armaments trade in 1999 was worth $1 million, which constitutes 0.03% of
Russia's total armaments trade.
1. Belgrade's rush for undemocratic
constitutional changes following the government's draft of an anti-terrorism
law, brutal suppression of independent media, and the panic appointment of 24
September as the all-out FRY election day for municipalities, parliament, and
president, all reflect frantic efforts of the Milosevic regime to preserve its
power at any price. The short-term
outcome will probably be the further
international isolation of Serbia and the regime, intensification of the
internal opposition, and continuing support for reform and democracy in
Montenegro. Provoking anti-Milosevic
forces in Montenegro to enter a violent phase of their opposition to the regime
is a significant aspect of Belgrade's political activism. The danger of turning Montenegro into an
insignificant political subject should be perceived by Montenegrin democrats as
a short-term consequence, while the lasting effect would inevitably be further
degradation of the regime and crystallization of a better defined democratic
Yugoslav opposition to the dictator and his clique.
The Kosovo
elections taking place a month after the FRY elections will be used by Belgrade
to provoke destabilization and divert attention from the undemocratic Milosevic
regime.
2. The irreversible shift of South-East Europe
to stability and peace is linked with the gradual process of stabilization,
economic progress, and preparation of certain countries for EU and NATO
membership. The potential of the G – 8
cooperation on the Balkans should not only be used on issues intending to
prevent the outburst of a violent conflict but also in the area of longer-term
conflict prevention and modernizing the region. The countries driving the process inside the region have defined
their national formulae for guaranteeing success of the process by applying for
EU and NATO membership. They expect the
support of all eight great and responsible world powers for their national
programs.
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EDITORIAL STAFF: |
CONTACT AND REFERENCE |
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Dr. Plamen Pantev, Editor–in–Chief |
ISSN 1311 – 3240 |
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Dr. Tatiana Houbenova-Delissivkova |
Address: ISIS, 1618 Sofia, |
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Mr. Valeri Rachev, M. A. |
P. O. Box 231, Bulgaria |
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Dr. Sc. Venelin Tsachevsky |
Phone/Fax: ++(359 - 2-) 551 828 |
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Mr. Ivan Tsvetkov, M. A. |
E-Mail Address: isis@cserv.mgu.bg |
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Dr. Dinko Dinkov |
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|
Dr. Todor Tagarev |
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