BALKAN REGIONAL PROFILE:
THE SECURITY SITUATION AND THE REGION-BUILDING EVOLUTION OF
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
(A Background and August 2000 Issue in Brief)
Research Study 8, 2000
Hard copy: ISSN 1311 - 3240
AN
I S N-SPONSORED MONTHLY
ELECTRONIC PERIODICAL
I
INTRODUCTION
II
CONFLICTS AND POST-CONFLICT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE BALKANS
1. The
Post-conflict situation in Kosovo
2. The
Post-war rehabilitation of Bosnia and Herzegovina
III
THE NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES: SPECIFIC ISSUES
1. Albania
2. Bulgaria
3. FRY
4. Greece
5. Romania
6. Turkey
IV
THE BILATERAL AND MULTILATERAL RELATIONS. THE STATE OF REGIONAL INITIATIVES IN THE BALKANS
1. Bilateral Relations
2.
Regional Initiatives: The Pact of Stability for Southeast Europe
V
THE ECONOMIC SITUATIONS OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES AND THE REGION
1. Bulgaria
2. Croatia
3. Greece
4. Turkey
VI
THE INFLUENCE OF EXTERNAL FACTORS ON THE REGION: NATIONAL GREAT POWERS AND
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
1.
The United States
2. Russia
VII
THE SECURITY SITUATION AND THE REGION-BUILDING EVOLUTION: CONCLUSIONS
The many negative tendencies stemming
from the obstructive policy of the regime of Yugoslav President Slobodan
Milosevic persisted during August. At a
period when preparations are taking place for elections in Kosovo, the Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), Albania and Romania, Russia reminded observers
that it has the potential to strengthen the destructive factors in Southeastern
Europe. The Russian Foreign Minister
confirmed with his friends from official Belgrade “how dangerous the situation
will become if the elections in Kosovo take place”. The declaration comes after
a year of obstructive attitudes on the side of Milosevic and his clique that
were not confronted by Russia.
The preparations for the elections in FRY
definitely show the elections will not be democratic and free. The Serbian opposition, for its part, has
done what it could to remain disunited three weeks before election day. Polls show that the opposition is leading
with 35 per cent, opposed to 23 per cent of Milosevic supporters. At the same time, 6 per cent follow the
candidate of Vuk Draskovic’s party, and 5 per cent are scattered around other
opposition candidates. A missed chance
for the opposition to win the elections and take power in a peaceful way would
be highly irresponsible.
The USA confirmed in August that its
links with Albania, Bulgaria and Croatia matter greatly in trying to bring
prosperity to Southeastern Europe. The
bilateral and the multilateral contacts among the countries of the region were
not as intense as in previous months – a mark of the ongoing hot summer in the
Balkans and the focus of Albanians, Bulgarians, Greeks and Turks on
extinguishing big fires in their national territories.
Political violence in Kosovo intensified
in August as the province approaches the planned municipal elections on 28
October this year. The Political
Services Centre of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE) in Pristina, which houses the offices of the political parties in
Kosovo, was hit by an explosion on 18 August.
In separate incidents Serbs, Albanians and Roma have been killed. Analysts believe that the Milosevic regime
and extremist Albanian forces are behind these acts of violence. The death of two Kosovo Albanians in unclear
circumstances, held in Serbian jails in mid-August, provoked the rage of Albanians
in the province. The Kosovo
Transitional Council (KTC) said it had information on worsening detention
conditions in centres for Kosovo prisoners held in Serbia.
The UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK),
together with the Kosovo Force (KFOR), the OSCE and the office of UNMIK head
Bernard Kouchner will examine the political killings and violence. Dr. Kouchner began a series of meetings on
10 August with representatives of the Kosovar minority communities, including
with Bosnians, Roma, Turks and other communities. In an effort to improve the legal order in Kosovo, Dr. Kouchner
appointed on 10 August an additional 139 judges and prosecutors and 309 lay
judges. They will start their activity
at the beginning of next year, when the new budget takes effect.
UNMIK with the support of KFOR assumed
responsibility on 14 August for a smelter that has been linked to rising levels
of atmospheric lead in northern Mitrovica – at times reaching 200 times the
acceptable levels recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Upon his visit to the plant Dr. Kouchner
said the factory is of 19th-century standards.
UNMIK took action to improve the management of the factory, of the
environment and of the production complex itself. In the meantime, the workers will receive compensation.
Some 400 university students from Japan
helped the people of Pristina at the beginning of August with garbage removal
and beautification – planting trees, bushes and flowers – in a three-week
programme with Kosovo students.
The accidental deaths of three de-miners
in Bosnia, as well as the targeted killings of refugees returning to their
native places, in two separate incidents this month show that the post-conflict
rehabilitation is far from complete.
During the war in Bosnia, an estimated one million mines were laid in
some 19’000 minefields. Though slowly,
the process of returning of refugees to areas dominated by other ethnic groups
continues. In the past six months the
UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has registered 19’500 minority
returns in Bosnia and Herzegovina, compared to just 2’000 returns registered
during the same period last year.
NATO announced on 1 August that US army
Lieutenant General Michael L. Dodson will serve as the next commander of SFOR,
the NATO stabilisation force in Bosnia and Herzegovina, succeeding Lieutenant
General Ronald E. Adams.
The organisation of the police in Bosnia
by the UN mission in that country is improving, and more minority representatives
in the Bosnian police forces can be seen.
The recruiting of minority cadets for police academies is also
progressing. A third aspect of the same
issue is the redeployment of minority officers between the Bosnian
entities. Nearly 450 minority graduates
are currently attending or have graduated from Bosnia’s police academies, while
130 minority officers have been identified for redeployment across the lines of
the entities.
The judicial reform in Bosnia is slowly
taking root, there is a growing cooperation between Republika Srpska and the
Interior Ministry of the Federation, and state institutions, as the state
border service, are beginning to function.
Despite the various obstacles, especially those created by Belgrade,
Bosnia is beginning to knit together.
Albania is preparing for local elections
on 1 October this year. The Albanian
Government has pledged to carry fully transparent and fair elections.
The escalation of the internal conflicts
within the ruling Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) in Bulgaria has been
postponed for the autumn, following political and corruption scandals. The country is approaching its general and
presidential elections in the spring of 2001 with two basic social
characteristics: first, rising
unemployment that reached 700’699, or 18.33 per cent of the working population,
and second, lost confidence in the social function of the state (85 per cent of
Bulgarians believe the state will not help them if a fire or a natural disaster
leave them homeless) and dramatic de-motivation to participate in the election
process (52 per cent said they would not go to vote on election day).
The presidential representative of the
united Serbian opposition, Vojislav Kostunica, is leading in the opinion polls
a month before 24 September, election day in FRY, with 35 per cent. Milosevic and his supporters follow with 23
per cent. 17 per cent are yet
undecided, 9 per cent said they would not vote, 6 per cent support Vojislav
Mihajlovic, the candidate of Vuk Draskovic’s Renewal Movement, and 5 per cent
support other opposition candidates.
The poll was carried out by the Belgrade-based Institute for Social
Sciences. After the constitutional
violence committed by the Milosevic clique, Montenegrin democratic leaders have
distanced themselves from participation in, and the introduction of regulations
in support of, the elections. The
Montenegrin Ministry of Information has decided to forbid electoral campaign
coverage for the federal elections in the state or local media of the republic,
which does not affect the private ones.
The boycott of the elections, though a principle position on the side of
the democratic leaders of Montenegro, would increase the number of votes for
Milosevic and his party.
The only chance for an eventual success
against Milosevic, despite the ongoing unfair and undemocratic campaign in FRY,
is the united opposition of all who disagree with Milosevic’s government in Serbia and Montenegro. The Belgrade dictator is exercising specific
election tactics to bring nationalist supporters under his banner. The arrest
of two British OSCE team members in Kosovo and partners within UNMIK, together
with two Canadian nationals, and a previous arrest of four Dutch men, fit well
Milosevic’s notion of the outside world as trying to undermine the country and
to destroy his government. This is why
the Yugoslav Army (VJ), his undemocratic tool for political purposes, has
imposed a blockade on the roads that lead from Montenegro to Republika Srpska
in Bosnia. The explanation was that
this is a measure to protect FRY from a foreign country. The tactics amount to pre-election pressure
on the rebellious Montenegrin Government, too, rekindling fears of a brutal
suppression of any secessionist acts from the federation. This trick of the VJ acts as a uniting
factor for the nationalists in Serbia.
Another measure of Milosevic to assure his own electoral success is by
silencing the voices with strong arguments against him. Ivan Stambolic, nephew of the long-time
leader of Socialist Yugoslavia, Tito, and a former Serbian president, was
kidnapped during his regular morning jog on 24 August and has been missing for
the last five days. Stambolic was one
of the creators of the politician Milosevic but became one of his harshest
critics, after Milosevic removed him from his way in 1986. Stambolic criticised Milosevic for his
nationalism and has said that he is guilty of creating a Frankenstein in
Milosevic. Milosevic’s wife Mira also
joined the election campaign after her nomination as a candidate for a member
of parliament.
A contract was signed this month at the
Greek National Defence Ministry for the purchase by the Hellenic Air Force of
15 new Mirage 2000 5S and the modernisation of 10 older-model Mirage
fighters. Under a separate contract the
country will also acquire 200 Mica air-to-air missiles and 56 Scalp missiles.
The two deals, signed with France’s
Dessault Aviation, Thompson-SCF Detexis, Snecma and Matra British Aerospace
Dynamics are part of a five-year armaments modernisation programme, estimated
to cost Greece a total of 554 billion Drachmas (approximately US$1.5
billion). The French company has also
proposed that Greece buy its fourth generation Rafale jetfighter, which Greece
is assessing, National Defence Minister Akis Tsohatzopoulos said. Tsohatzopoulos said a contract has also been
prepared for the purchase of 60 fourth generation Eurofighter warplanes.
The Greek Government is negotiating
credits from Germany for the purchase of new German-made tanks, according to a
German Finance Ministry report tabled with relevant Bundestag committee. Greece is in the final stages of selecting a
new main battle tank (MBT) for its armed forces. The deal could be worth of more than DM 4 billion (US$1.8
billion). Germany’s Leopard 2A5 is one
of the main contenders. Other
candidates for the Greek order include US, British and French companies. The plans for the purchase is for 250 tanks,
24 recovery vehicles and 12 bridge layers.
Greece has signed weapons contracts worth
more than US$4 billion over the past three years. Earlier, Turkey also declared the intention to buy 1’000 tanks.
Presidential elections will be held in
Romania in November. President Emil
Constantinescu made a statement that he is leaving politics. He also said he had been unable to eradicate
corruption, which had affected the economy and parliamentary politics. The former president, Ion Iliescu, is the
favourite to win in November.
Turkey signed the International Covenants
on Civil and Political Rights and on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights on 15
August. The Turkish police arrested on
22 August six terrorists who had planned to bomb various targets in Istanbul.
This month the commander of the First
Army, General Hilmi Ozkok, handed over his duties to General Necdet Timur. General Ozkok was recently appointed Land
Forces Commander.
a. Albania-Greece.
Greek Defence Minister Akis Tsohatzopoulos visited Tirana on 1 August
and met with his counterpart and with Albanian President Rexep Maidany. The Maidany called on his Greek neighbours
to revoke the law of 1940 that still keeps the two countries in a state of
war. Though the Greek Government
cancelled this law, it has not yet been repealed by the Greek Parliament.
b. Bulgaria-Turkey. Turkish Deputy Prime-Minister Mesut Yalmaz visited the
summer state residence Evksinograd near Varna on 21-22 August and met with
Bulgarian Prime-Minister Ivan Kostov.
They discussed a broad range of bilateral and regional issues. Over the next two years Turkey will increase
the transit through Bulgaria of Russian gas with 2 billion cubic metres each
year, reaching 14 billion in 2002.
Bulgaria will receive US$17.4 billion from the transit. Yalmaz discussed also with Council of
Ministers officials the increase of the export of electricity to Turkey. The Turkish Deputy Prime Minister pledged
that by the end of the year Turkey would begin the agreed construction of water
power electric stations in southern Bulgaria and the construction of the
Maritza highway, which will improve the roads between the two countries. Though the visit was unofficial, Yalmaz
presented an invitation on behalf of Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit to
Kostov to make an official visit to Turkey.
Bulgaria has not yet had its real estate
in Istanbul returned, as was pledged earlier to the present Bulgarian
Government, and the issues of divided families and other contentious property
issues have not yet been completed in the bilateral relations.
The launch of a Stability Pact
quick-start project, a Balkan Media Academy, was announced on 11 August in
Sofia. It is to organise seminars in
the Balkan capitals, mainly in those countries where media freedom is endangered. The project is worth €21 million.
The foreign trade deficit of Bulgaria in the first half of the year was
US$581.9 million. However, there has
been a tendency in the last ten months of a relative increase in exports, for
the first half of the year at 23.8 per cent.
Representatives of the government, unions, employers, business people
and the president’s office discussed Croatia’s development for the next three
years on 25 August at Privicka Jezera.
Among other issues, they discussed proposals by the Finance Ministry
regarding the reduction of public spending, the employment of 30’000 people
annually, a stable fiscal policy, the budget until 2003, the framework of the
strategy of economic development, and changes to the tax system. The experts concluded that the starting
point of a stable budget in the coming three years was the expected rise of 2.8
per cent in the gross domestic product (GDP) this year. The rise in coming years is expected to be a
4 per cent increase in GDP in 2003 and a 5 per cent increase in GDP in 2004.
The National Bank of Greece has purchased 89.9 per cent of the second
biggest Bulgarian bank, the United Bulgarian Bank (UBB). The Greek owners are expected to buy by 2002
another 10 per cent, presently held by the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development (EBRD).
An analysis by Moody’s this month found Turkey’s economic plans
successful. The analysis emphasised
that the government had strong parliamentary support. Due to the positive political developments in Turkey, there may
be an increase in its rating. Interest
and inflation rates have a tendency to decline. The report concludes that maintaining a stable decline in the inflation
requires completing the financial and structural reforms and privatisation.
USA-Albania.
Albanian Prime Minister Ilir Meta visited Washington, DC, on 23 August
and met with US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. The internal situation in Albania and the
state of regional relations were discussed during the visit. US support to Albania has focused on
restoring public order, strengthening the civil service and institutionalising
democracy. US technical and monetary
assistance to Albania will continue at about US$30 million to US$40 million a
year.
USA-Bulgaria.
The director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, George Tennet,
visited Sofia on 13-15 August at the invitation of the director of the National
Intelligence Service of Bulgaria, General Dimo Gyaurov. Tennet held talks with Bulgaria’s president,
prime minister, minister of defence, minister of the interior, chief of the
National Security Service (the counter-intelligence), chief of the National
Service for Fighting Organised Crime and his counterpart General Gyaurov. A meeting was convened on 14 August between
Tennet and the chief of Military Intelligence, General Lieutenant Angel
Katsarov. Analysts believe several
topics were discussed during Tennet’s visit:
regional security, cooperation in fighting drug trafficking, illegal trafficking
of people and arms and organised crime.
Very probably hot security issues in Southeast Europe, such as the
situation in Montenegro, Kosovo and FRY, were also discussed.
USA-Croatia.
(1) President of Croatia Stjepan
(Stipe) Mesic and Croatian Prime Minister Ivica Racan visited the US starting 9
August and met with US President Bill Clinton and other senior US
administration officials. They
discussed a broad range of bilateral and regional issues. Clinton said Croatia’s success would help
its own people and would also benefit the region. He also pledged three new aid packages for Croatia. These include US$21 million from a recent
supplemental appropriation, US$4.5 million to reconstruct houses for refugee
returns, and US$4 million for foreign military financing, now that Croatia is a
member of the Partnership for Peace (PfP).
During Mesic’s visit to the Pentagon, US support for the military reform
of Croatia and the issues of the civilian control of the military were
discussed. In the current fiscal year
the US has provided US$40’000 for Croatia’s PfP participation, and US$ 117’000
have been provided for the next year.
Funding has been provided by the US for international military education
training. The US has financed the
training of 10 to 20 people from Croatia at the Marshall Centre on how to run
militaries under civilian control. Some
US$1’625 million have been provided for bilateral military cooperation with
Croatia by the US for the period 1999-2001.
In a State Department ceremony on 9 August, Madeleine Albright was
presented with a Badge of the Grand Order of Queen Jelena with Sash and Star by
Mesic for her outstanding contribution to the promotion of democratic changes
in the Republic of Croatia, for the solution and the stabilisation of crises in
Southeastern Europe, and for the strengthening of Croat-US relations based on
the principles of partnership. (2) An agreement was signed in August at the
Croatian Navy (HRM) headquarters in Split in line with a plan on Croatia-US
cooperation for organising a joint military exercise of the US Navy Sixth Fleet
and the Joint Croatian Armed Forces to be held in the central Adriatic area.
USA-FRY.
(1) At a regular State
Department briefing Deputy Spokesman Philip T. Reeker said the US has
challenged Milosevic to run free and fair elections, called for 24 September. The challenge is to allow the free and
independent media to resume reliable coverage without clouding the facts in the
election process. (2) At the request of Albright, the US ambassador
to Croatia, William Montgomery, has been named to lead a new Office of Yugoslav
Affairs within the American Embassy in Budapest, Hungary. This office will consist of State Department
and US Agency for International Development (AID) officials who will work to
support the full range of democratic forces in Serbia. Both official Belgrade and the leading
opposition presidential candidate, Vojislav Kostunica, declared they were
against the opening of the office in Belgrade.
However, after the closure of the US embassy in Belgrade, the US needs a
place to meet representatives of Serbian democracy, and the office is not
designed to promote a particular opposition representative or party.
USA-Romania.
(1) The Export-Import Bank of
the USA (Ex-Im Bank) declared on 4 August that it is backing a US$51 million
bank loan to Romania’s National Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Water
Management that will enable the institute to purchase state-of-the-art weather
forecasting equipment and services from Lockheed Martin Overseas Corporation,
Bethesda, Maryland. (2) The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)
is to open a station in Bucharest by mid- September. This would be the implementation of an agreement to support the
fight of the Romanian police services against organised crime.
USA-Turkey.
The Ex-Im Bank stated on 14 August that it would back US companies’
exports to Turkey through its credit insurance programme. This year Turkey has become Ex-Im Bank’s
fourth largest market, up from fifth place in 1999. Ex-Im Bank is open in Turkey under all its short-, medium- and
long-term programmes, which are available in both the private and the public
sector. Ex-Im Bank authorised US$20
million in financing of US exports to Turkey in fiscal year 1999.
Russia-Bulgaria. The Russian Foreign Ministry qualified on 7 August the
debates in the Bulgarian Parliament on the yearly report of the government on
national security as
“unfriendly” towards Russia. The
declaration of the ministry was provoked by the Bulgarian Prime Minister’s
reminder that not allowing the transit of Russian aeroplanes to Pristina at the
close of the Kosovo conflict last year over Bulgarian air-space prevented the
failure of the peace process, which had just begun in June 1999. At that time NATO and Russia had not yet
agreed on the functions and zones of responsibility in the province of the
Russian contingent. The Russian Foreign
Ministry’s displeasure is linked to the Bulgarian Government’s perceptions of
Russian activity in the Balkans. The
perceptions are called “inadequate”.
The Russian daily Izvestia said on this contentious issue that “we live
in the age of rationalism and pragmatism, when the allies are selected on
qualitatively new criteria” (in comparison to the traditional religious and
ethnic links). It seems, according to
the Moscow newspaper, that this has not been realised only by the Russian
Foreign Ministry. Further on the
article asks: “Why do we have always to place our neighbours to the artificial,
invented choice: Russia or the West?”
The exchange of harsh declarations
between the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Russia and Bulgaria last month are
counterproductive to bilateral relations.
Russia has the potential of playing a much greater positive role in
Southeastern Europe than it has played till now.
Russia-FRY.
Russia officially declared on 25 August that the elections in Kosovo on
28 October would endanger the regional security in the Balkans, a position long
supported by the regime of Milosevic, the major obstruction to post-conflict
reconstruction in Kosovo.
1.
The coming elections in Albania, FRY, Kosovo and Romania will be a major
test for the stability of the regional security situation. The special concerns are linked to FRY and
Kosovo. These elections are also going
to be a test of the ability of the great powers outside the region and of
international institutions to influence and support the progress of democracy
and the chances for economic prosperity of the people of the Balkans. The guarantee for the progress of the region
is the new majority striving for democracy, European and NATO integration, and
people from the region learning to work hard for their own prosperity on a
market economy basis and in a new strategic environment.
2.
The solution of the economic issues of the individual Balkan countries
remain the major stepping stones towards an improved regional market and to a
closer relationship with and integration into the EU. More extensive support from the Stability Pact donors and
countries is of key importance to making economic relations in the region more
dynamic.
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EDITORIAL STAFF: |
CONTACT AND REFERENCE |
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Dr. Plamen Pantev, Editor–in–Chief |
ISSN 1311 – 3240 |
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Dr. Tatiana Houbenova-Delissivkova |
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Mr. Valeri Rachev, M. A. |
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Dr. Sc. Venelin Tsachevsky |
Phone/Fax: ++(359 - 2-) 551 828 |
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Mr. Ivan Tsvetkov, M. A. |
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Dr. Dinko Dinkov |
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Dr. Todor Tagarev |
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